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Under the favorable stimulus of the “blowout†in the auto market in 2002, a large amount of capital flowed into the auto industry in 2003, and the auto manufacturing industry became one of the industries with the fastest growth in actual use of foreign investment, which was a year-on-year increase of 51%. At the same time, private capital is also heavily involved. According to incomplete statistics, the investment has exceeded 20 billion yuan.
It is expected that the concentration of investment in the automobile industry will increase in 2004, and the middle and high-end car sectors will become the focus. Foreign investment and state-owned capital in the industry will “play†the main force of investment. The strengthening of "competitive" investment will further change the pattern of the domestic auto industry. The proportion of cars will further increase, and the structural transformation of the automobile industry will accelerate, and the auto market will continue to maintain a high level of development.
It is estimated that the production and sales of cars will reach 2.3 million in 2004, an increase of 400,000 units over 2003, an increase of 21%. The total automobile production and sales are expected to be around 5.1 million vehicles, an increase of 650,000 vehicles over 2003, an increase of about 15%.
The assessment of investment in the automotive and automotive industries in 2004 was based on two points of profit and investment. The first is profit, which is the most important factor driving capital investment in the automotive industry. Since 2003, the automaker’s ability to “make money†has only increased. In the first three quarters of the year, the profits of key companies (groups) of the automotive industry grew rapidly. The profit rate of the auto industry reached more than 20%, and the profit rate of the vehicle manufacturing industry was even higher. In fact, such a high rate of profit is of great interest to both the industry and foreign companies. Although the auto industry’s profit margin will also decline with the overall reduction of automobile prices, sufficient scale expansion (production capacity increase) will offset the decrease in profitability due to the compression of unit profit space.
Followed by the growth of chasing investment. Due to the large amount of domestic capital entering the automobile manufacturing industry, foreign automakers that originally occupied absolute advantages began to be forced to increase investment to cope with increasingly fierce market competition. This chasm-style investment has led to the continuous entry of foreign investment in the automotive industry. increase. According to the current information, the infusion of funds from South Korea, Japan, and the United States and Europe has reached billions of dollars, and multinational auto giants clearly want to use capital advantage to implement strong squeezing measures and suppress domestic competitors.
However, since 2004, some new problems arising from the rapid development of the industry will also appear and create pressure.
First of all, domestic auto consumption credit support may be weakened. The current auto consumer credit has reached 181.5 billion yuan as of October 2003, which is the country's second largest personal credit market after housing credit. Although it is expected that the central bank may approve three foreign-funded auto finance companies including GM, Toyota, and Volkswagen in the near future, these auto credit companies with foreign backgrounds are still difficult to play a role in the short term, and it is expected that the credit reduction factors will affect large or small areas. To at least 30% of car buyers' purchasing power.
Secondly, the rapid increase in the number of auto ownership raises higher requirements for urban environmental construction. Because urban construction cannot keep up with the tide of car consumption, it may trigger the introduction of direct and indirect restrictive measures by local governments, thus affecting the release of auto purchasing power.
Third, due to the continuous rise in the price of gasoline, the price of oil and the comprehensive use of automobiles will likely increase significantly. In addition, in cities where domestic auto purchasing power is concentrated, such as Beijing and Shanghai, rail transit has entered a new period of rapid development, and its alternative role may affect vehicle sales.