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The driving trends of future cars can not be separated from three themes: electrification, automation and interconnection. Where do the auto industry at the crossroads go? How does the Asian auto industry develop and how does the European and American automotive market maintain its current status? These issues are not just for automakers who need to think, auto suppliers need to Positive response.
Long-term trends in the global automotive market Long-term trends in the automotive market also affect automotive suppliers.
It is estimated that global vehicle production will maintain an average growth rate of about 3% in the coming years. This is a one to two percentage point drop compared to the years before the financial crisis. In Europe, the aftermath of the financial crisis has not subsided, but growth in North America, and especially in China, will offset the weakness in the European market. The European auto market will begin to gradually recover. One of the reasons is that the current average age of passenger cars is almost 9 years old, setting a new record high. The average age of cars in North America is 11 years, so the demand for newer cars will drive the growth of the market.
On the other hand, the domestic market is catching up on a larger scale. At present, the number of vehicles owned by thousands of people in China has just reached one-tenth of the level in Western Europe and will continue to thrive in this context. Manufacturing in emerging markets will also develop steadily. For example, companies in Germany and Japan are increasing the proportion of overseas production at almost the same pace, from about half in 2005 to two-thirds in 2015. In this regard, global suppliers have clear advantages.
Globally, the goals and standards for environmental protection and accident prevention have become increasingly stringent. This has contributed to the gradual development of powertrain electrification and automated driving. It is estimated that by 2020, 12 million new registered vehicles will have electrified power systems. Since then, this figure will be leaps and bounds. In addition, by 2025, almost every new car sold globally will be linked to the mobile data network, and the rapid data transmission rate makes it possible to carry out real-time risk warnings through the car network, which provides an important prerequisite for the realization of autonomous driving. .
As mentioned above, the automotive industry is facing a large number of economic and technological challenges. To meet these challenges, auto suppliers must accumulate advantages in technology reserves and actively expand their businesses to provide cost-effective solutions to emerging markets. Electrification: Efforts to improve energy efficiency The vehicle's electrification consists of two aspects. First, the electrification of conventional internal-combustion vehicles and the first refers to electric vehicles. The purpose of electrification is to improve energy efficiency.
Bosch has recently expanded the functionality of the start-stop system to enable gliding assistance. The sensor will pre-detect road conditions in front of the road or driving restrictions and issue advance warning to the driver. Under real road conditions, this technology can be used to achieve 15% fuel economy on the highway through system interconnection, which reduces both fuel costs and CO2 emissions. This function can meet the EU's carbon emission standards to be achieved in 2020 by varying degrees of electrification based on the type of vehicle.
In terms of hybrid power, there is an energy recovery boosting system for hybrid drive systems. The system uses a 48-volt generator and an integrated lithium-ion battery system to recover large amounts of braking energy and to drive the vehicle, thus achieving 7% fuel economy. The future goal of Bosch in electronics is to achieve the goal of reducing the cost of lithium-ion batteries by at least half and increasing the energy density to at least twice. To this end, Bosch signed a joint venture agreement with Yuasa Corporation of Japan and Mitsubishi Corporation, and hopes to enter the Japanese market.
In addition, Bosch's new products in other fields have also been applied to this new trend. Among them, the intelligent booster iBooster can provide braking assistance through the motor without using the internal combustion engine to generate a vacuum environment, thereby achieving vehicle braking. Depending on the type of vehicle design, the intelligent booster iBooster can use brake energy recovery to increase the cruising range of pure electric vehicles by 20%. It forms brake pressure three times faster than conventional systems. At a speed of 30 km/h, the braking distance can be shortened by 1.5 meters. With the help of the electronic stability program ESP, the automatic emergency braking system prevents frontal collisions with pedestrians and reduces accidents by one third. If you add iBooster, you can avoid more than half of similar traffic accidents. Automation: Traffic accidents that take more than 90% of fully automated driving within 10 years are caused by human factors. Therefore, reducing the burden on the driver is a top priority. The realization of the “zero accident†driving vision requires more automated driving functions.
Bosch is the only automotive technology supplier currently testing autopilot technology on German roads. These technologies allow drivers to experience autonomous driving in three different scenarios: First, parking.
In 2015, Bosch will launch a parking assistance system. The system can realize parking functions in a crowded garage through remote control. In the future, vehicles with 360° viewing angles can search for parking spaces and park in the parking lot themselves. Followed by stop / go. It is expected that as early as 2014, Bosch will introduce a congestion assistance system that will allow vehicles to keep lanes in congested traffic through steering interventions. In the future, the system can also realize the automatic lane change function and become an navigator when the traffic jams.
Finally, the future of automated driving on the highway has a clear direction for development. Developments in this area include the combination of an adaptive cruise control system with lane keeping assist functions. By 2020, navigators on the highway will also become possible. Fully automated driving means that drivers will no longer need to operate the steering wheel even on busy roads outside the highway. There is still a long way to go to achieve this vision. It can be achieved only through driving on the Internet.
The more functions you want to achieve in safe driving in the future, the more networking and communication between cars and cars is needed. To achieve networked driving on the mobile road, at least half of the vehicles in operation must share real-time data with other vehicles. This goal is expected to become a reality in the next decade.
Networking: The purpose of security, comfort and dual-handed vehicle networking is not only to achieve accident-free driving, it also strives to make driving more comfortable and provide more service content. In this regard, Bosch has also developed a variety of solutions:
1. Interconnected control unit: In combination with vehicle condition monitoring, the central controller can provide new services for fleet management, such as timely misidentification and targeted maintenance. A large car rental company will take the lead in using the system in 2014.
2. Online platform Drivelog: Provides the driver with all vehicle related overhead and service quotes online.
3.mySpin: mySpin is Bosch's new solution for smartphone and vehicle integration. With mySpin, the smart phone application will be displayed on the dashboard display. For car buyers who value the mobile internet, solutions like this can make the car more attractive. MySpin's philosophy is that the more features in the car, the easier it is to operate.
In addition, in the programmable instrument panel technology field, Bosch has developed a driver information system controlled by vocal voice for General Motors. Some of Cadillac's models have been configured, and Opel will also be used in New England.