In 2006, the price of caustic soda was first suppressed and then raised. In the first quarter, due to the rapid expansion of caustic soda production capacity in recent years, prices have generally been slow to decline. However, starting in April 2006, with the increase in international demand for caustic soda, China's excess caustic soda diverted through export channels, reversing the trend of caustic soda prices. With the increase in China's shipments of caustic soda, there is a gap in the supply of caustic soda in some areas, the price has gradually increased, and the storm of caustic soda prices has spread throughout the country. It is expected that the development of the Chinese caustic soda market in 2007 will be mixed, and the industry will enter the consolidation phase.
First, the structure of caustic soda products changed. The first is that the downstream industry has increased the quality requirements of caustic soda, so that the scope of application of diaphragm alkali shrinks. Second, the overall direction of world chlor-alkali technology development is to scale up, and energy-saving and energy-saving technologies will become the focus of development. More than 90% of the chloralkali capacity will be built and expanded. Ion-membrane technology will be used. The development direction of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda production technology is mainly the improvement and application of high-performance ion membrane and electrolyzer technology. The proportion of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda increased. The third is the continuous increase in transportation costs, low-level sales of liquid caustic will shrink.
The second is that the rate of expansion of caustic soda slowed down. In 2006, many chlor-alkali enterprises increased their production and reduced their efficiency. The increase in the price of caustic soda did not compensate for the loss caused by the decline in the price of chlorine products. Due to the low added value of the chlor-alkali industry, in the case of high energy prices, the company's ability to resist risks will be enhanced mainly through scale, intensification, upstream and downstream integration, and refinement. The combination of chlor-alkali and petrochemical industry will become an industry. Direction of development.
Third, there are increases and decreases in downstream consumption. From the analysis of the downstream product situation, the demand for caustic soda has increased steadily in industries such as adhesive fiber, chemical industry, metallurgy, water treatment, military industry, medicine, and petroleum, and the demand for caustic soda in the alumina, light industry, and dye industries has slowly declined. Alumina prices dropped from RMB 5,000 to RMB 6,000 per ton in the first half of 2006 to RMB 2,300 to RMB 2,400, which is less than half of the peak value. Alumina is the largest increase in demand for caustic soda products. Such intense fluctuations have caused strong industry attention.
Fourth, exports will be further increased. Due to the poor profitability of the chlor-alkali industry in the past few years, which has dampened the enthusiasm of manufacturers for investment, North America and Western Europe have insufficient investment in increasing new production capacity. In the next few years, the supply of caustic soda in the world will continue to be tense. The development of the textile industry in South Asian countries has stimulated the consumption of caustic soda, causing an increase in demand for caustic soda in the international market. Textile trade disputes, while restricting the export of textiles from China, have caused a large number of textile orders to be moved to countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam. As a basic raw material for the printing and dyeing industry, the demand for caustic soda in South Asian countries continues to increase. In Bangladesh in particular, the country did not previously have a printing and dyeing industry. With the textile industry driving the development of the printing and dyeing industry in the country, its demand for caustic soda has greatly increased. Chinese caustic soda exports have broad prospects.
Fifth, the price will enter the consolidation period. From the analysis of the caustic soda price trend, after the price rises continuously, the affordability of some downstream industries has been challenged, and users have demanded that price reductions increase. It is expected that the price of 2007 caustic soda will enter the consolidation period. Due to the strong regional nature of liquid caustic soda, the difficulty of sales of caustic soda will increase, and there is a great possibility that prices will fluctuate downward.
Sixth, production is bottlenecked. The rise in energy prices is a key constraint to the development of caustic soda. Due to continuous rise in electricity prices, the cost of caustic soda is greatly increased. According to the statistics of the Chlor-Alkali Association, in the period from January to November 2006, the average consumption of AC electrolytic cell in the diaphragm was 2410.7 kWh/ton, and that of the ion-exchange membrane alkaline electrolysis unit was 2378.3 kWh/ton. Since June 30, 2006, the national average electricity price has increased by RMB 0.025/kWh, which has increased the production cost of caustic soda by RMB 60/ton. In addition, the rising cost of water resources affects the production of enterprises. Each ton of caustic soda production requires about 5 to 6 tons of water. The rise in water price has a greater impact on the cost of caustic soda. The shortage of water resources has become a serious constraint to the sustainable development of the caustic soda industry in China.
Seventh, environmental protection policies restrict the development of caustic soda. The state implements the strategy of changing from “end-treatment” to “prevention of pollution”, and the diaphragm process equipment will be gradually phased out. The production of many chlorine products is limited, and the chlor-alkali market imbalance will plagued chlor-alkali production for a long time. Chlor-alkali enterprises will invest a lot of money in sewage and pollution control. In order to meet the requirements of a 4% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP of the country and a 2% reduction in pollutant emissions, a new round of technology tapping, technological transformation, adjustment technology, product and raw material structure for enterprises within the industry will soon begin.
Eighth, the regional market features are strengthened. Although chlor-alkali enterprises are scattered all over the country, there is a disconnect between the place of consumption and the place of production. There is a large gap in the supply of caustic soda in the south, and there is an excess supply of caustic soda in the north. It is necessary to rely on exports or divert to the south in order to balance the real estate needs and the regional price difference. It is difficult to resolve.

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