October auto production and sales data released to achieve 5% target pressure doubled

“Although there is psychological preparation, if the growth in the last three months is still 4.5%, our pressure will be great, but in October the data is so low, or we did not expect.” On November 10, the China Automobile Industry Association (below Abbreviated "China Automobile Association") released external car production and sales data in October. After the release of the data, Assistant Secretary-General Chen Shihua of China Automobile Association stated the above sentence.

Slower overall growth from January to October

According to the latest production and sales data from the China Automobile Association, from January to October, China's auto production and sales were 2295.68 million units and 22.9271 million units, an increase of 4.27% and 4.13% year-on-year, and the rate of increase slowed by 0.5% and 0.33% respectively from January to September. Among them, 19,529,900 and 19,520,200 passenger cars were sold and sold, an increase of 2.34% and 2.13% respectively; commercial vehicles were sold and sold 3,440,400 and 3,424,900, an increase of 16.93% and 17.24% respectively. In terms of overall situation, the growth momentum of commercial vehicles continues to outpace passenger vehicles and lead the growth of the industry.

As far as single-month production and sales are concerned, in October this year, the automaker produced 2,606,600 vehicles, which was a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.49% and a year-on-year increase of 0.67%; sales of 2,703,500 units were down 0.19% month-on-month and an increase of 2.02% year-on-year.

For the performance of auto production and sales in October, Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Automobile Industry Association, described it as "unexpected." In Xu Haidong’s view, there are two reasons for this situation. “On the one hand, the overdraft of the market in the last three months of last year is very serious; on the other hand, although the vehicle price has declined in September, it mainly focuses on luxury cars. The area and ordinary cars haven't changed much. In October, companies didn't promote sales through price cuts, which is also the reason for changes in production and sales, he said.

At the same time, Chen Shihua also believes that the promotion of the entire automotive market is not strong, affecting the market's increase. However, he did not express any concern about whether he could complete the growth rate predicted at the beginning of the year. “Now many industries in the country, including the automotive industry, do not emphasize volume growth and start to pursue qualitative growth. From now on, car production and sales may enter a The low-speed growth phase. The data in October is just an example. If there is still a situation of low-speed growth or negative growth in the next few months, it is a problem worthy of serious consideration."

The impact of purchase tax on sales

Pursuant to the “Notice on the Reduction of Acquisition Taxes for Passenger Vehicles with Discharge Capacity of 1.6 L and Below” promulgated by the Ministry of Finance, starting from January 1, 2018, vehicle purchase tax will be levied at a statutory rate of 10%. In other words, the vehicle purchase tax for passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less will be restored from 7.5% to 10%, which has been less than two months. At the end of last year, the impact of purchase tax on the sales volume of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less was different. The situation at the end of this year may be difficult to see in the past year.

According to statistics, in October, 1.637 million passenger cars with 1.6L or less were sold, accounting for 69.6% of passenger car sales, down 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year. From January to October, sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 13.336 million vehicles, a year-on-year drop of 2%, accounting for 68.4% of sales of passenger cars, down 2.9 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. From 1.6L and the following passenger cars to the proportion of sales of passenger cars, in addition to higher in January this year than the same period last year, the proportion of 2 to 10 months are lower than the same period last year.

The Deputy Secretary-General of China Automobile Association, Shi Jianhua, pointed out that due to the purchase tax policy, sales of 1.6L and below passenger cars last year had a very big impact on the market this year. “The basic purchase of the car is all. If there is no purchase tax this year, it may be The market is a micro-growth or a zero-growth, and it is precisely because of this policy that only 5% of the forecast was made at the beginning of the year. From the current data, it is already good to maintain at 4%."

Shi Jianhua also pointed out that under such circumstances, in contrast to the market this year, the effect of halving the purchase tax may not be as large as expected. "If the purchase tax continues to adjust next year, I think the impact will not be too great. The market will grow steadily, and we will not pursue quantity. At the same time, with the stability of the market, we will adjust the direction of the company's development. It will be very difficult to increase 10% in the future. The current production and sales volume, 5% should be up to the limit. As long as there is no policy changes, it is normal to maintain a steady growth rate of 4 to 5% in the future." He said.

New energy vehicles grow at a high rate year-on-year

Data show that the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in January-October were 517,000 units and 490,000 units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 45.7% and 45.4%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were completed with 427,000 units and 402,000 units respectively, an increase of 54.7% and 55.9% year-on-year, respectively; and the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles completed 90,000 units and 88,000 units respectively, an increase of 14% and 11.2% year-on-year respectively.

Different from the accumulative growth rate, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in October increased by 85.9% and 106.7% respectively, which was much higher than the increase from January to October. The production and sales of pure electric vehicles all completed 77,000 vehicles, an increase of 76.3% and 95.8% year-on-year, respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles all completed 14,000, an increase of 163.6% and 194% respectively year-on-year. The plug-in hybrid passenger car increased by 203.9% year-on-year, leading the increase in other models of new energy vehicles.

According to Xu Haidong, according to the trend of the past few years, the new energy vehicle market is in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, and with the introduction of the national credit system, the production of new energy vehicles may be brought to the car companies. power. “The adjustment of auto points by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology means that for electric vehicle production, the points are only a part, and there are sales links. It is not that car companies can do it. Companies will have corresponding preparations in the early stages, and temporary increase in output will be small. Reality, the development of new energy vehicles, or in accordance with their own laws, not entirely policy promotion."

In addition, Xu Haidong pointed out that the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued relevant policies on adjusting auto loans, which are good for the entire automotive industry and are helping the development of the auto industry. “The increase in the proportion of new energy loans by 5 percentage points is a strategic orientation and strategic support. New energy is a strategy that the country has already identified, including smart network alliances, and traffic-intensive countries. We believe that these policies will drive these Will achieve better development."

It is worth noting that according to the "China-US Dollar First Meeting, which reached important consensus on many aspects agreed to on November 9, the joint efforts of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's website to jointly promote greater development of bilateral relations," China will test its free trade before June 2018. Within the district, we will launch pilot projects to liberalize foreign investment ratios for special vehicles and new energy vehicles. Regarding the impact of open stocks on China’s new energy auto industry, Shi Jianhua stated: “In the future, foreign investment in the production of new energy vehicles in the free trade zone will definitely increase the degree of competition in the domestic auto market. This is also normal. For the market, Allowing companies to compare their ability to develop products, technologies, and markets under equal conditions also shows our country's attitude towards market liberalization."