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The share of independent brands will continue to be slowly eroded. I think the development of the automobile industry in 2015 is not optimistic. First, it is expected that China's macroeconomic growth rate will gradually decline from the first quarter in 2015. It will be high and low in the whole year. In general, the national economic growth rate will remain at around 7%. According to the impact of the macro economy on the automobile industry, The growth rate of the automotive industry is likely to be lower than in 2014;
Second, in 2015, new energy conservation and emission reduction standards will be introduced and implemented. China's own brand vehicles will be more severely pressured and challenged than joint venture brands;
Third, Shenzhen has become the eighth city in the country to implement automobile purchase restrictions after Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang, Tianjin and Hangzhou. Affected by the unsynchronized development of car ownership in large cities and urban transportation construction, it is expected that the number of cities that will implement purchase restrictions in 2015 will increase, which will have an adverse impact on car sales;
Fourth, in 2015, the International Automobile Group will launch more energy-saving and environmentally-friendly models and related parts. China's automobile sales market will be further eroded by joint venture brands. Although the crisis is not very fierce, but the crisis is "everyday", the era of self-entertainment of self-owned brand cars immersed in past achievements will pass.
In short, the growth rate of China's automobile sales market will be slightly higher than that of the international automobile market, but the self-owned brand automobile enterprises will be more challenged and the prospects are more pessimistic. It is recommended that independent brand auto companies do not fight for each other, they must warm up, integrate their respective superior resources, jointly develop new technologies, and jointly tackle key components; I believe that the future development direction of China's new energy vehicles is hybrid vehicles and extended-range electric vehicles. It is recommended that relevant national authorities introduce relevant policies to encourage the development of hybrid vehicles and extended-range electric vehicles.
Wang Xiaoguang, Research Fellow, Decision and Consultation Department, National School of Administration:
The impact of passenger car market policies is greater than the macro economy In 2015, China's economic development will still show a downward trend and will remain for a while. In the Chinese auto market, the passenger car market is very little affected by the macro economy. The Chinese passenger car market is still a high-quality market with large market capacity and full competition in the world. The fluctuation of the growth rate of the Chinese passenger car market is also normal.
In my opinion, the factors affecting the Chinese passenger car market in 2015 are not the macro economy, but the government's policy on the automobile industry and automobile consumption. Recently, the Shenzhen Municipal Government has introduced a car purchase restriction policy. I think this is a manifestation of the government's lazy administration. At the same time, such a policy is also illegal, and it is a hooliganism that infringes on the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. For the passenger car market, the direct result of car purchase restrictions is that the time and cost of obtaining the license plate number is too high, and consumers are eager to purchase joint venture brands and imported cars. If the dominoes in the car purchase limit in 2015 continue to fall forward, other local governments will follow the trend to implement the car purchase restriction policy, which will undoubtedly stimulate the sales of foreign brands, and further squeeze the market space of self-owned brand passenger cars. This runs counter to the country's strategy of encouraging the development of independent brand auto companies, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the auto industry, and building a car power.
Unlike passenger cars, the macroeconomic situation directly affects the direction of China's commercial vehicle market. In 2014, the sales volume of China's commercial vehicle market declined. The reasons are mainly as follows: 1. The automobile to the countryside policy in the past few years released the consumption potential ahead of time, leading to weak consumption; second, although China's commercial vehicle industry is very large. However, the brand construction is not enough, and the quality of the products has not been improved. Therefore, when the domestic market is sluggish, the extensive export method has also led to its performance in overseas markets has not improved. In 2015, the downward pressure on the domestic economy will be even greater. There is no doubt that the main reason for the lack of economic development is because of insufficient investment. The downside of investment in highways and real estate has directly led to a decline in transportation volume. Coupled with the impact of price cuts in the international market, energy companies will further reduce costs, which will result in a decline in freight revenue. Under the combined influence of several factors, there will be a structural decline in the commercial vehicle market next year.