The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles led to discussions: the possibility of a ban on sales within 10 years

On September 9th, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Xin Guobin said at the “2017 China Automotive Industry Development (Telda) International Forum” that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also started the relevant research to stop the production and sales of conventional energy vehicles, and will also formulate a schedule. This is the first time that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has banned sales of fuel vehicles. The industry generally believes that the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, the full development of new energy vehicles is the current trend, but this is a systematic project, still face a lot of resistance, the possibility of achieving a comprehensive ban within 10 years is relatively small.

International Trends and Energy Environmental Needs

China officially put the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles on the agenda. Xin Guobin said that at present, many countries have adjusted their development strategies, and new energy and intelligent network industry have accelerated their industrial deployment and seized a new round of commanding heights. Some countries have already set a timetable for stopping production and sales of traditional energy vehicles. At present, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also started relevant research and will also formulate a timetable for China with related departments. These measures will surely promote profound changes in the environment and driving force for the development of the automobile industry in China.

The Beijing Commercial Daily reporter learned that since 2015, some European countries led by the Netherlands have joined the “International Zero Emission Vehicle Alliance” and promised to make all new vehicles sold as new energy models by 2050. Subsequently, Norway, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and other countries also announced the plan to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. The ban on sales schedule is generally set in the interval of 2025-2040.

Ling Ran, an automotive commentator, said that many years later China will face depletion of energy, automobile exhaust emissions also bring serious pollution to the atmosphere, so the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is a global trend, our country must also keep up with the pace.

Xin Guobin said that in the field of new energy vehicles, China has become the largest production and sales market. In 2016, the production and sales of China's new energy (9.070, -0.10, -1.09%) exceeded 500,000 vehicles, and cumulatively promoted more than 1 million vehicles, accounting for 50% of the world's total. The research and development level of new energy vehicle vehicles continues to increase, and the market recognition of Chinese brands has increased significantly. In certain market segments, it has been able to compete with international brands on the same platform.

From now until 2025, it will be the most dramatic change in the automotive industry. The requirements for energy-saving and emission-reduction of traditional vehicles are getting higher and higher, and the development of new energy vehicles is accelerating but the technical requirements are getting higher and higher, and intelligent network-linked vehicles will have a huge impact on the entire industry. Xin Guobin and experts suggest that Chinese auto companies should profoundly understand this trend, adjust their strategies in a timely manner, define development plans, adapt to the challenges of the new situation, and help China transform from a big automobile country to a powerful automobile country.

Wu Wei, Director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that it is organizing the drafting of a national intelligent vehicle innovation and development strategy. It will formulate a strategy to clarify the future direction of China's auto strategy, safeguard measures, and key tasks. At the same time, it will propose a recent action plan and determine a roadmap. And schedules to ensure that innovative development strategies are implemented as soon as possible and in an orderly manner.

Multi-level production and sales status and technical infrastructure problems

However, the complete ban on fuel vehicles cannot be accomplished overnight. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, believes that prohibiting the sale of fuel vehicles in an all-round way to develop new energy vehicles is a trend in society today. This is a systematic project and it is a long process and cannot be implemented in one go.

Yan Jinghui, an automotive market expert, said that China's ban on the sale of fuel vehicles within a decade is less likely to be more difficult. Although China is a major automobile country, it is not a powerful automobile country. Currently, China still uses fuel vehicles as the pillar industry, and it is not complete. When switching to the new energy industry, it was unable to do a good job of maintaining after-sales service for a vehicle with a holding capacity of close to 200 million vehicles. In this regard, the state can promote and support new energy sources and make a gradual transition.

Some people in the industry think that judging from the development trend at home and abroad, the end of the era of traditional fuel vehicles may only be a matter of time, but the time for stopping the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in China does not come much faster. In particular, countries like China, where the geographical area is relatively large and the social consumption level is relatively large. For example, the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles in our country lags behind. The proportion of charging piles and new energy vehicles is still insufficient. Moreover, due to the dislocation between the location of charging facilities for public charging facilities and the location of consumer charging, and the interconnection between charging facilities is low. For other reasons, the utilization rate of some public charging facilities that have already been built is low, and the gap in car charging services is further aggravated. Therefore, in the face of the transition from one industry to another, many problems still need to be resolved.

It is understood that as of the end of 2016, China’s car ownership was close to 200 million, and the huge holdings brought about severe resources, energy and environmental pressure. “There is still a certain gap between the consumption of passenger cars in China and the international level in 2016. China has promised to the international community that carbon emissions will reach a peak value in 2030 and the proportion of primary energy will reach 20%. According to the current development speed of the automobile industry, it is still very difficult for us to reach the standard. It also requires the hard work of the entire automotive industry.” Ling Ran said, “We must consider China’s development status and accept the reality. It is impossible to achieve a comprehensive ban on fuel vehicles within 10 years. Now, there are many joint ventures in China, and all of them are fuel vehicles. Therefore, we must develop in a gradual and orderly manner, choose the right route, and conform to international trends. We must develop both quickly and steadily."

Although China's auto companies have made great progress in innovation, there is still a gap between them and the international advanced level. Many core technologies are still subject to human control.

A person in charge of R&D of self-owned brands disclosed to the Beijing Commercial Daily reporter that because some independent brands started to embark on the right track of developing their own engines, compared with electric vehicles, the research and development of internal combustion engines required more capital and personnel. If you stop selling traditional fuel vehicles in the short term, not only will multinational brands continue to suppress technically, but they will also surrender their share of market share in recent years.

Success or failure of new energy vehicles

Whether the full ban on the sale of fuel vehicles can be achieved, the development of new energy vehicles is the key. The data shows that China has leapt to the world's largest new energy vehicle market since 2015, and it has no suspense on the pure electric vehicle branch. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of new energy vehicles in China increased 53% year-on-year to 507,000 vehicles in 2016, of which pure electric vehicles grew by 65.1% to 409,000 units and pure electric vehicles by 257,000 units. The year-on-year surge of 75.1%. From January to July this year, China’s cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 251,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, of which total sales of passenger vehicles exceeded 206,000, accounting for 83% of total sales of new energy vehicles.

However, the complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles means that the era of non-fuel trucks is approaching. This is a major revolution for the traditional auto industry and is also a huge pressure for the new energy auto industry. Some analysts said that new energy vehicles not only need to replace traditional fuel vehicles, but also from the battery, motor, electronic control and other aspects to enhance their own quality. Although in 2016, China’s new energy vehicles have been promoted to more than 1 million vehicles, there is still a big gap between the number of vehicles and 200 million fuel vehicles.

Yan Jinghui believes that we must recognize the fact that the development of new energy vehicles is an innovation process and it is not fully mature. It is impossible to completely replace the fuel industry in a short time. Foreign new energy vehicles are also new markets. Although they are more advanced than us, they are smaller than the fuel industry.

It is reported that after years of efforts, China’s automobile industry has formed a relatively complete industrial system. In some areas, the level of technology is not much different from that of foreign countries. It already has the foundations and conditions for competing with foreign developed countries on the same stage, although the starting point is the same, but Does not mean that the synchronization has reached the end. "In the face of a new round of trends, we must proceed from the bottleneck of development and short-boarding, take active actions and take the initiative."

In addition, Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Development of the Ministry of Finance, also stated on September 9 that the long-term implementation of consumption subsidies for new energy vehicles will easily blindly expand the company and create excess capacity. The current subsidy policy for retreat has been clarified. In the future, it will cooperate with relevant departments to accelerate the new energy auto points policy and ensure that the financial subsidy policy will continue to support new energy vehicles after the retreat. Analysts pointed out that under the background of subsidy withdrawal, how domestic car companies ensure sales and continue to innovate in technology, which tests the domestic car prices, but also determines the implementation of China's comprehensive ban on fuel vehicle policies.