Since the release of the new mechanism for the pricing of refined oil products this year, the Chinese refined oil market has ushered in a “three consecutive falls”. On November 14, 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the official website saying that it decided to reduce the price of gasoline and diesel by 160 yuan and 155 yuan per ton respectively, and calculated the retail price of gasoline No. 90 and diesel No. 0 (average of the country) per liter. Decrease 0.12 yuan and 0.13 yuan, the implementation of the price adjustment time is 24 o'clock on November 14.

According to agency statistics, since the new mechanism was operated, the adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices has experienced “five-up, five-fall, or five-failure”. After the implementation of this round of price adjustment, the number of cuts will exceed the upward adjustment for the first time, presenting a pattern of “five-up, six-trend, or five-failure”. At the same time, this time, the pricing mechanism announced that the market was the first to experience a “three consecutive losing streak,” and due to the lack of a full 50 yuan/ton change on October 17, the price adjustment was aground.

Downgrade has long been doomed

The last round of refined oil price adjustment in China was on October 31st. At that time, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on the official website that it had decided to reduce the prices of gasoline and diesel by 75 yuan/ton, respectively. "Measured retail prices of gasoline No. 90 and No. 0 diesel (average of the country), ie, a reduction of 0.06 yuan/liter."

After this, the trend of international oil prices did not pick up, but showed an overall downward trend. Due to the excessive decline in the previous period, as of the “Ten Working Days” stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission, the decline in international oil prices still reached China’s marginal adjustment. According to the data provided to reporters by Treasure e-commerce platform Treasure Island, as of the tenth working day on November 14, reference is made to the crude oil varieties – cloth oil futures, spot prices for cloth oil, and Dubai, ESPO (eastern Siberian-Pacific pipeline crude oil) The price was 105.977 US dollars / barrel, the rate of change was -2.25%, in full compliance with the "50 yuan / ton" price adjustment "red line."

“The price adjustment of refined oil products is based on the current mechanism for the formation of refined oil prices, and is based on changes in the average price of crude oil in the international market 10 working days before November 14.” The National Development and Reform Commission also stated that since the end of October, the As a result of the strength, and the decrease in demand for crude oil for seasonal maintenance of the major refineries in the world, oil prices in the international market oscillated downward and the average price in the first 10 working days fell.

In response, the National Development and Reform Commission reduced the prices of gasoline and diesel by 160 yuan and 155 yuan per ton, respectively, and measured the retail price of gasoline No. 90 and diesel No. 0 (average of the country) to decrease by 0.12 yuan and 0.13 yuan per liter respectively.

Ease CPI gains

For the price adjustment, Xu Ying, an analyst with Longzhong Petrochemical Network, told reporters that from the October macroeconomic data, the CPI (consumer price index) increase was smaller than the previous market expectations. Although refined oil directly accounts for a relatively small proportion in China's CPI, as a basic material, the downward adjustment of oil prices will reduce the costs of production, transportation, and other industries, thereby expanding its influence.

“As for the ordinary car owners, the monthly private car with a fuel consumption of 8 liters is calculated based on a monthly mileage of 2,000 kilometers. In the next round of the November 15-28 pricing cycle, the total refueling cost will be reduced by about 9 yuan. “Treasure Island analyst Yu Jinbo frankly told reporters that the impact of oil price cuts is relatively limited.

"After this round of downward adjustment, the main sales strategy is still based on price protection and pursuit of sales profits. There is limited space for falling prices, and the price increase area is not a minority, so the zero-pitch spread will continue to shrink." Yu Jinbo said.

Lu Weicai, an analyst at China Unicom, noted that after the reduction, the profitability of China's gas stations was compressed and the margin of preference was narrowed. It is reported that the price of some private gas stations rose by 0.1-0.2 yuan/ton, and most of the main gas stations in East China and North China canceled preferential measures under the tight diesel situation. "After the implementation of the reduction in the refined oil retail price, the prices of gasoline and diesel in resource-constrained regions such as East China and North China will continue to remain strong, and the spread between wholesale and retail prices will further narrow, and the discount rate for gas stations will gradually narrow," said Lu Weicai.

Or welcome "Four losing streak"

For the future, Li Yan, an analyst with Longzhong Petrochemical Network, believes that the current international crude oil price is operating in a relatively reasonable range. Although it bears downward pressure, the bottom support is also relatively stable.

"The favorable factor is that Libya's oil supply disruption risks are still in the pipeline, good economic data and the Fed will not reduce QE in the short-term; while the negative factors are mainly due to the abundant supply side, US crude oil production continues to grow and high inventory will not bring "Small pressure." Li Yan said, "In the short term, the supply and demand side and the policy side will become the dominant factor in oil prices. Crude oil may still hold weak consolidation in the future. Therefore, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will not be adjusted or slightly reduced. ."

However, Yu Jinbo said that from the perspective of the crude oil market, the market is looking for US refinery processing and crude oil inventories. If the inventory growth of the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) recently slows down, crude oil will continue to rebound, but the crude oil is technically viewed. It is still in a downtrend recently, and the upward pressure of $95/barrel is quite high. "The next time the domestic price adjustment window will be opened on November 28, comprehensive factors, the crude oil rate of change may be positive, and later will gradually expand." He said.

For the crude oil market, "see more" is the International Energy Agency (IEA). Yesterday, the IEA stated that the seasonal growth in crude oil demand may cause oil prices to face upward pressure in the short term. If the IEA's predictions come true, then in the next round or the next two rounds, China's oil price adjustment may rise again.

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