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Market share of independent brands will continue to fall
It is expected that the self-owned branded passenger vehicles will continue to decline in 2013. Although several new B-class models launched at the time of release, they have lagged behind the previous generation of joint venture brands in the technology field, plus the relative lack of brand influence. Under the combined effect of various comprehensive factors, the autonomous B-Class sedan has continued to decline its market share is an inevitable normal. In 2013, there will be six new autonomous B-Class models: Chang'an Ruixin, Hongqi H7, Huatai B21, BYD Sirui, Beiqi Shenbao, and Haima M8. Although the price/performance ratio is a prominent advantage, the brand's gold content is not enough. In addition, Chinese bureaucrats and nationals have a paradoxical love for foreign brands. It is estimated that it will be difficult to compete with foreign brands within ten years. If China and Japan meet each other this year, a bloody battle in the South China Sea will inevitably lead to the Great Recession of the Japanese and American car-grade cars, and even to the destruction of the top car, which will leave a superior opportunity for the cars of Europe and South Korea. At the same time, the self-owned brand B-class vehicles are expected to seize some market share opportunities in the originally weak B-class vehicle market. It is expected that the gap between the market share of self-owned brand A0 sedan and A0-level products of joint-venture brands will gradually widen, as the so-called “joint-owned brands†will continue to invade the A0-class sedan market and squeeze local self-owned brands.
Restrictions will continue to spread and expand the fermentation
Guangzhou restricted purchase in 2012 and Beijing restricted purchase in 2011. Shanghai started license plate control from 1994. By the end of 2012, it had delayed the influx of more than 1.6 million new vehicles. The purchase of first-tier cities has become a hot topic in the auto market. It is expected that the 2013 purchase restriction policy will undoubtedly continue to spread and expand the fermentation, and its direct result is the negative impact on the sales volume of passenger vehicles. The consumption escalation in the entire automobile market, coupled with the policy auto market's restriction on self-owned brands and restrictions on their development, has led to a gradual shrinking of the autonomous self-owned A0 sedan segment market. The survival of local independent brands has become increasingly difficult and desperate. In recent years, there have been a number of independent brands overwhelmed by the tremendous pressure and weight of the A0 market has announced its exit. Just like automobiles, in recent years, the economic entities of China's local national industrial manufacturing industries, like those of self-owned brands, have all gone toward great decline and death.
Government procurement will continue to go down
At the beginning of 2012, the "2012 Catalogue for the Selection of Official Vehicles for Official Vehicles (Consultation Draft)" was published. The independent brand seems to have ushered in an unprecedented opportunity. However, so far there has been no import reduction in official car purchases. The news of the products of the joint venture and the transfer of products of its own brand were reported. In 2013 and in the future, the official vehicles of party and government agencies will continue to fool the auto makers of the brand and the people of the country. The culprit of corruption is determined by the system and cannot be changed. The Chinese-style official car is the official sedan. From ancient times to the present day, officials in China have no reason to take the official car? !
New energy vehicles are still not a policy force
Although from 2009 to 2012, China has successively introduced a number of related lame policies that encourage the development of new energy vehicles. However, the government-level subsidy details that have not been issued have become a major obstacle to the promotion of new energy vehicles. If the government implements a private subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2013, unlimited purchases or restrictions will become the biggest favorable policy for pulling new energy vehicles. However, the quality of new energy vehicles that are inherently insufficiency has yet to be improved. In addition, the power source auxiliary devices for new energy vehicles are still far behind the development of market demand, and have become the bottleneck of their development and need to be broken. I hope in 2013 or in the future, with the improvement of infrastructure in various regions, in the future, local new energy subsidies will be more and more, and subsidies may also increase.
In the commercial vehicle sector, LNG trucks and buses will rise against the trend. In 2013, various car companies will also launch response products. As oil prices continue to rise, natural gas prices are much lower. Although the cost of car purchase is relatively high, the operating cost of the entire vehicle has dropped a lot, and users can continue to obtain higher returns. In regions with rich gas sources and relatively complete infrastructure such as filling stations, sales have been outstanding. However, in areas with inadequate supporting facilities, the development of LNG trucks will still be subject to great restrictions and restrictions.
Oil prices will continue to rise more or less
It is expected that the international oil prices will remain high in 2013, and domestic refined oil prices may remain high, and imported crude oil will continue to exceed self-produced oil, which will open up a large number of imported oil products. High oil prices and soaring prices will have a fatal blow to the logistics and transportation industry. At the same time, they will be even more harmful to commercial vehicles. In the field of cars, mainstream self-owned car makers will increase the research and development speed of turbocharged vehicles in the A-class market, and more models will be replaced with small-displacement turbocharged engines.
Commercial vehicle market will quickly pick up
The commercial vehicle market is known as the "barometer" and "wind vane" of the country's macroeconomics. This determines that in 2013 the Chinese government must maintain an economic growth rate that is not low and must maintain a relatively high level of investment. Expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth are currently inseparable from investment. At the end of last year, the country released the signal of stability investment growth in 2013. The macroeconomic economy bottomed out and began to stabilise and pick up. The new government opened the floodgates, and on December 24, 2012, the National Development and Reform Commission announced again the list of approved projects, a total of 21 projects. With the 73 previously announced projects, the number of major project approvals announced this month has reached 94. Among them are a group of new construction, expansion and relocation of airports, five highways and rail transit projects and road construction, six borrowings from foreign countries, and ten infrastructure projects carried out by the central government. As the economic situation is still unstable in 2012, social stability requires a certain amount of investment growth; the NDRC’s infrastructure project at this time will lead to a new round of investment, paving the way for economic recovery, and macroeconomic changes will basically determine the development of the commercial vehicle market. . Affected by economic fluctuations, the sales volume of engineering vehicles is closely related to the country’s macroeconomic situation.
The new round of "cars going to the countryside" is difficult
The new round of “automobiles going to the countryside†is not expected to be introduced in 2013. Since the state introduced “automobiles to the countryside†in the first two years, the state’s revenue “losses†are huge, and the current state has to support the civil servants who are constantly vicious and bloated. The (bureaucratic) ranks, and also the "crows mouth" who plugs the US imperialists, openly and freely give away to the U.S. government and other lazy migrants the country's astronomical figures. In addition, the astronomical “three-public consumption†and “maintaining stability†expenditures are much higher than national defense expenditures. It is expected that the scale of GDP in 2013 may reach 55.1 trillion yuan, but the total fiscal deficit will reach 1.2 trillion. Therefore, the deficit will cause China to lose money from top to bottom. Where does "Silver" come from? The only thing is that it can only increase taxation on the people. In 2013, local governments will also continue to rely on the continued demolitions of residential land, the financial and democratic economy, and the search for the people's fate. Therefore, the ninth batch of “Energy Saving and Benefits†models and the “Car to the countryside†Huimin policy will be difficult to introduce in 2013. Each car company can only continue to “self-car to the countrysideâ€, and there is no bother and feeling from top to bottom. There is no silver for the people's livelihood projects that make the taxes and fees suffer losses and have no political achievements.
Car three bags will "cross the river by feeling the stone"
The "most stringent history" vehicle recall regulations are implemented and "difficulty in production" for eight years. The "Three Guarantees" vehicle will be implemented in 2013 by "crossing the river by feeling the stones." In addition to the continuation of the engine, transmission or its main parts can be replaced twice to return the provisions of this draft. The scope of "Three Guarantees" for auto parts has also been clearly defined. It is planned that there will be quality problems in the engines and transmissions during the period. They can be replaced free of charge. After two replacements, they can be returned. However, the parts that are subject to wear are defective and can only be repaired and replaced. . Because there is no "national standard", the auto three packs continue to "difficulty in production", leading consumers to maintain their rights.
When a car fails, it is necessary to check which component is out of order. Then it is necessary to identify whether the problem is caused by human or the quality of the automobile itself. Many sophisticated components require professional testing organizations to conduct inspections, and domestic authorities currently have professional and authoritative testing organizations. very few. In addition, consumers change cars or return cars, but in the process of buying cars, they must pay purchase tax, insurance, etc., involving multiple departments, how to coordinate the relationship between various departments? Who will bear the loss? How to define the loss? These are questions that need to be answered. Because automobiles belong to bulk consumer goods and involve many links such as production, distribution, and quality inspection, the rights to auto consumption and the “three packs of automobiles†cannot be “all-embracing.†In a society where there is no law or simply no law, the real "car three packs" does not exist. Please do not take the consumer seriously.
National IV emissions are cars eating and drinking donkeys horse fodder
From July 1st, 2013, all production, import, sales and registration of vehicle compression ignition engines and vehicles must meet the requirements of the National IV standard. The biggest problem in restricting the implementation of the National IV emission standards is not the technical problem of the fuel engine, but the sulphur content of the refined oil on the market is too high, and even the larger problem of the State III standard cannot be achieved. If the emission standards are forcibly advanced rapidly, it may happen that the falsification of EGR (exhaust gas recirculation) occurs when the State III is in force, forcing companies that do not have the ability to provide compliance products to sell illegally, causing chaos in the market.
It is reported that at present, only 40% of domestic Sinopec refineries can only discipline the three-standard diesel abroad. Due to the lack of domestic oil products, the adaptability of China IV products can not be guaranteed. Now many places are supplied with State II oil. Petrochemical enterprises like to process high-sulfur crude oil because the price is cheap. China's petrochemical enterprises even use the national standards passed by the State Council. Industry regulations are seen as a toilet paper and empty text on the toilet.
At present, the State IV technology has matured and the emission has been raised to the State IV. It is necessary to install an exhaust gas treatment device on the engine. However, the domestic related supporting facilities are still not mature and the infrastructure construction should keep up with, such as the maintenance of the State IV engine. The urea filling station in the SCR system has not yet been built. Urea is a kind of reducing agent, which can timely treat the nitrogen oxides in the exhaust gas, making it a harmless nitrogen and water.
Overseas exports will grow into highlands
Relative to the previous years, the domestic passenger car and commercial vehicle market showed a “blowout†relative situation. In 2013, the overall automobile industry in China may experience a slight increase in the development trend. They have turned to overseas markets to release excess production capacity. The quality of cars produced in mainland China is getting better and better. The other is that it has a high cost-effective advantage in terms of price, and it has strong competitiveness in the international market. Domestic auto makers have increased their efforts in the construction and development of international market networks while increasing their export volume, and gradually formed overseas dealerships, user training, after-sales service network, and parts suppliers systems, which have fundamentally eliminated overseas users. Worry about car purchase. In 2013, China's car companies are accelerating their deployment of the vast blue ocean in overseas markets.
