November PMI Innovation Low National Statistics Bureau released data on December 1st showed that China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.3% in November, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, hitting an eight-month low.
In addition, the HSBC manufacturing PMI also fell in November, with a final value of 50.0% being the lowest in six months. Among them, the growth rate of export orders fell to a low of nearly 5 months.
The official and HSBC PMI data both fell back. Guan Qingyou, the executive director of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute, told reporters that on the one hand, both internal and external demand have slowed down. On the other hand, during the Beijing APEC period, the shutdown of many enterprises also has certain production. Impact, both indicators are approaching the line of glory, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large.
Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, also believes that this data shows that manufacturing expansion is weak, economic activity is weak, and monetary and fiscal policies still need to be further loosened to hedge the downward pressure on the economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission approved nearly one trillion yuan of infrastructure investment in the face of greater economic downward pressure, and the steady growth of official profits has continued to increase. According to the incomplete statistics of the reporter, in the two months since October, the National Development and Reform Commission has intensively approved 35 infrastructure projects, including 28 railways, 6 airports and 1 deep-water port project, with a total investment of about 976.171 billion yuan.
The most recent reply was on November 28th. On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission approved three railway projects, including the Xuyong-Bijie Railway Project, the Harbin-Mudanjiang Railway Passenger Line Project, and the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Railway Badaling Yueling Section Project, and Lanzhou, Gansu Province. The second phase of the expansion project of Zhongchuan Airport has a total investment of approximately 51.012 billion yuan.
“The project approval is so intensive and the investment amount is so large, showing that the infrastructure investment is indeed overweight.” Guo Lei, a senior macro researcher at the Shenyin Wanguo Institute, pointed out that one of the basic characteristics of the current Chinese economy is de-real estate, and real estate investment continues to decline. The policy promotes capital construction investment to overweight to hedge the downside impact of real estate, while also laying the foundation for a stable investment next year.
CITIC Securities' analysis report predicts that in the context of short-term economic pressure, it is expected that projects in the subsequent infrastructure sector will be released. Infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter is expected to rebound from the current 21% level to around 25%, thus effectively damaging the decline in real estate investment. Negative impact, it is expected that investment in the fourth quarter will rebound to around 17%, making this year's economy run smoothly at around 7.4%.
Policy development and economic stabilization can be expected to increase the investment in infrastructure projects, while a series of major policy measures are also intensively released. The reporter noted that in the month of November alone, the Chinese government has issued a number of major policies such as comprehensive interest rate cuts and new “following ten”.
Among them, on November 22, the People’s Bank of China implemented a comprehensive interest rate cut after two years, and on November 26, it was called the “Guidelines on the State Council’s Investment and Financing Mechanism for Innovating Key Areas to Encourage Social Investment” issued by the new “Feng Shi”. The State Council also issued a number of opinions on strengthening imports, supporting the development of small and micro enterprises, and promoting the circulation of domestic trade.
It is worth noting that in order to ensure the implementation of the policy, the Central Office and the General Office of the State Council recently dispatched 8 inspection teams to conduct inspections in 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), focusing on comprehensively deepening reforms and major growth and steady growth policies. Check the implementation status.
Guan Qingyou said that the current downward pressure on the economy still exists and monetary easing will continue. Although the medium- and long-term downward trend of economic growth is still not over, in the short-term, under the “warm wind” of a series of steady growth measures, the reform dividends that are continuously released will be superimposed, and the future economy will stabilize.

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