Combine harvester market: before and after the first half of the year

The harvesting machine market entered a period of rational growth in the first half of the year after undergoing a sudden surge last year. The domestic market witnessed modest growth and the growth rate remained buoyant. The monthly trend in the first half of the year was characterized by low and high prices. The export market continued its development trend last year and continued to grow at a double-digit rate.

Domestic sales increased slightly First, the total volume of harvesting machinery increased slightly. According to statistics, in the first 6 months, 80 major harvesting machinery manufacturers in China have cumulatively produced and sold 295,000 units of various types of harvesting machinery, an increase of 2.83% year-on-year. The combine harvester rose moderately. According to market surveys, in the first half of the year, China accumulated 62,200 sets of various types of combine harvesters, an increase of 2.23% year-on-year.

Second, the market trend was low and high. The combined harvester market showed weakness from January to May, with monthly declines of 0.31%, 17.36%, 17.25%, 40.88%, and 21.79%, respectively, which fell out of the downtrend channel in June and started to increase at 7.62% for the first time. This feature can also be seen in the main categories of combine harvesters wheat and rice harvesters. The demand for wheat and rice harvesters in the second quarter accounted for 77.85% and 91.86% of the total demand in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, wheat and rice harvesting machinery sold a total of 34,400 units, a year-on-year decline of 3.73%. Among them, wheat and rice harvesters have experienced large landslides, wheat machines have fallen by 50% year-on-year, and rice machines have fallen by more than 30%.

Finally, there is a certain shift in the demand area. From the analysis of regional demand in the first half of the year, demand in the Central Plains region has dropped significantly and competition has intensified. Among them, price competition has become the most effective means of competition, and market demand in the traditional major markets, such as Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Anhui, has dropped significantly. Due to the lagging implementation of subsidies this year, the overall market did not start until the end of the second quarter. The Shaanxi, Heilongjiang and other provincial markets started earlier and the proportion of sales increased.

Exports have risen sharply In the first half of this year, the export market of China's combine harvesters continued to maintain the rapid growth momentum of the past year, and the growth rate has risen sharply. Customs statistics show that in the first six months, China's combined harvesters exported a total of 5,313 units and achieved export trade of 77,126,800 U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 34.07% and 41.18% respectively.

In general, the export of our combine harvesters in the first half of this year has the following characteristics:

First, export growth has increased significantly. From the monthly trend analysis of export volume, with the exception of a 14.44% decline in March, all other months maintained a strong growth trend, with an increase of 171.76% in May, creating the largest year-on-year increase in monthly exports of combined harvesters; the monthly trend from exports The analysis showed a 34.41% year-on-year decrease in March, while other months saw a rapid increase from two to three digits, with an increase of 338.21% in May.

Second, the degree of export concentration has further increased. Among them, Asia is the major export region of China's combine harvesters. In the first half of the year, the export volume and amount accounted for 95.75% and 94.21% of the total exports, respectively, an increase of 13.54% and 26,73% respectively. The proportion of Europe also showed a slight increase. There was a decline in Africa and South America, where the volume and amount of exports to Africa fell by 9.76% and 25.9% respectively year-on-year.

The third is that the export area has increased or decreased uneven heating and cooling. Among them, the number and amount of exports from Asia have increased by 56.16% and 97.8% year-on-year, respectively; Europe has 58.82% and 377.32% respectively. The year-on-year increases in both Europe and South America showed different declines. The volume and amount of exports from Africa dropped by 84.05% and 90.59%, respectively.

The major reasons for the soaring export market stem from: First, China's combine harvesters have a good price/performance ratio, especially for some under-developed economies in Asia, which have greater competitive advantages; second, the impact of the worldwide financial crisis this year gradually The reduction, especially in Asia, which is the main export area of ​​the combine harvester, has led many countries to recover from the crisis, and the market demand has seen recovery growth. Third, China's harvesting machinery exports are in a rising period, and the original export base is low, which also caused exports in recent years. The major reasons for the dramatic increase over the same period last year.

The market rationally enhanced the overall trend of the domestic market for harvesting machinery in China in the first half of the year. It has changed slightly over the last year. There has been a slight increase, and even some varieties have declined. There are many reasons. The following reasons are worthy of attention.

First, the harvester entered a period of rational growth. This is dictated by the laws of the market, and it is also the result of a rational growth phase after the demand was released early last year. This point, we can look for the answer from the development track of our country's combine harvester since 2000. In 2000, China's combine harvesters sold 31,500 units, an increase of up to 215%, after which there was a drop of 26.67% in 2001; in 2002, it rebounded strongly with an increase of 96.1%, and in 2003 there was a decline of 10.38%, and the fluctuation period was one year. After 2004, with the stimulation of agricultural machinery subsidies increased year by year, there has been a significant increase of 23.15%, 48%, and 85.81% respectively for three consecutive years. However, despite the continuous increase of subsidies for agricultural machinery in 2007, the market still experienced a sharp increase. Landslides, a drop of up to 57.82%. In 2008-2009, the market experienced recovering growth. In particular, last year, harvesting machinery not only reached peak sales volume, but also increased the combined harvester's growth rate by 27.69%. From this, we can see that during the subsidy period of subsidies from 2004 to 2009, China's combined harvesters generally have a 2-3 year volatility cycle, and this year is just like the decline after two consecutive years of growth. Based on this analysis, the decline in the market in the first half of the year was self-regulation of market demand after 2008 and 2009, which was a result of the lack of rigid market demand.

Second, the number of holdings has increased substantially, and marginal revenue has decreased. In recent years, with the continuous increase of China's subsidies for agricultural machinery, China's combined harvesting machinery has increased substantially. The decline in marginal returns has caused consumer investment enthusiasm to suffer a certain degree of setback. This factor has also affected the harvester market in the first half of this year.

Third, the market started later this year. From February to February, the market began to fluctuate until it began to grow rapidly in May. The development momentum of the harvester market in China is greatly driven by the demand caused by the update. With the slow start of the market as a whole, many update users have opted for a wait-and-see attitude.

Supporting the good market outlook in the second half of this year, the harvesting machine market in China is facing many favorable factors, especially the "Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Sound and Rapid Development of Agricultural Mechanization and Agricultural Machinery Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"), which will be released to China in the second half of the year. The accelerating development of the harvester market for a long time to come will have a profound effect.

From the analysis of the overall market demand, the harvester market in China will enter a high consolidation period in the second half of the year, but each category is different. The wheat harvester will cool down. After the wheat harvest in most areas of our country is over, the decline in market demand becomes a necessity. Rice harvesters may grow steadily slightly. Especially in the double-season rice and three-season rice regions in the south, there will be a healthy increase under the subsidy. The corn harvester will continue to maintain a strong growth rate and is expected to grow at a double-digit rate in the second half of the year, especially in areas where subsidy energy has not been released in the first half of the year. With the start of subsidies in the second half of the year, the corn harvester market will be promoted. Rapid growth in demand.

In the first half of the year, cumulative sales of corn harvesting machinery reached 27,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.17%, and other economic crop harvesting machinery also showed a slight increase. Due to the complexity of machinery, some of our products are in the period of market introduction, coupled with the low awareness of mechanical harvesting in many regions, and the development has been slow. The "Opinions" specifically proposed to increase support for the development of the economic crop harvester industry, and will play an important role in the development of the economic crop harvesters in the second half of the year and later in the future.