New energy vehicles have always been the hot pursuit of market funds. The successive central and local support policies have also confirmed that 2014 is the first year of "new energy vehicles". Compared with the practical difficulties encountered in the promotion and sales of passenger cars, the promotion and application of new energy buses is expected to be faster.
The reporter was informed that at present, the country has already dismantled the target of new energy vehicle ownership in 2015. The first batch and second batch of promotion targets have reached 350,000, and these cities are subject to annual assessment and failed to complete the annual promotion target. Will be eliminated. At present, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, Xi'an, Fujian city groups, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other cities have issued relatively clear new energy bus procurement targets, accounting for 15% of the total target of new energy vehicles in these cities.
In a word, the new energy bus will start heavy-duty in the second half of this year and it will be a high probability event. At the same time, the volume of new energy buses will effectively stimulate the release of production capacity of the entire new energy automobile industry chain, highlighting a considerable number of investment opportunities.
Buses motorized become binding targets <br> <br> From a policy point of view, Ma Kai, deputy prime minister earlier this year proposed "four change" new energy vehicle development, emphasizing 2015 500 000 new energy vehicle population The goal is unchanged. By May, Chairman Xi Jinping emphasized that the development of new energy vehicles is the only way to become a powerful automobile country. The frequency density of the follow-up policies also showed that the promotion of new energy vehicles from the central government to local areas has entered the acceleration stage.
It is reported that Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and some other cities have issued relatively clear targets for new energy bus procurement. From 2014 to 2015, the number of new energy buses in these cities will exceed 20,000, accounting for 15 percent of the total target for new energy vehicles in these cities. %.
Zhou Xuhui, chief analyst of Haitong Securities' new energy industry, calculated in the report that although other cities have not identified the target of new energy bus procurement, if the new energy bus accounts for 15% of the total new energy vehicle promotion, then 2014 - In 2015, the sales volume of two batches of promotional cities for new energy buses will reach 50,000; assuming that 15% of 500,000 vehicles are all new energy buses, sales will reach 75,000 vehicles. However, based on the principle of prudence, Haitong Securities conservatively expects sales of new energy buses to be 20,000 cars and 30,000 cars this year and next.
The reporter learned that the data show that the first half of this year, new energy bus procurement 6,693 sets, of which 2,180 pure electric bus sales, plug-in hybrid bus 4513 vehicles. So, even in accordance with the above-mentioned conservative sales forecast, the amount of new energy bus purchases in the second half of this year will also be significantly increased, and the volume of production and sales will have a good continuity.
According to the latest statistics, there are clear signs of heavy volume in pure electric buses. In June this year, the output has reached 1,005 vehicles, and the total output of last year was 1,695 vehicles.
The significant pull the industry chain <br> <br> In absolute terms, the new energy passenger cars among Although the proportion is not high in the new energy, but its own big cars, big size, large capacity and other factors make it The pull of the entire industry chain cannot be ignored.
According to Haitong Securities, about 40% of the cost of a bus is battery, and the battery consumption of a pure electric bus is 15 times that of a car. Taking BYD K9 as an example, the battery cost of a pure electric bus is about 900,000 yuan, which is equivalent to the battery cost of 15 passenger cars. The cost of motors (including gearboxes) is about 300,000 yuan. In other words, 30,000 electric buses have the same pulling force for battery links as 450,000 cars!
In terms of materials, with the gradual launch of new energy vehicles, the demand for battery grade lithium carbonate will grow faster than other lithium salt products, and the price trend will be relatively strong. Lithium concentrates have strong bargaining power due to the scarcity of resources, and their profit elasticity is greatest. Judging from the recommendation of various securities companies, Lithium Concentrate's global leader Tian Qi Lithium and deep-processing giant Yu Feng Li, and Tibet City Investment with high-quality brine resources are worthy of investors' attention.
Batteries produce profits certainty strongest <br> <br> Specifically, the volume of new energy bus will make batteries manufacturers in the industry chain to benefit larger.
Haitong Securities calculated in accordance with the demand for electric buses reaching 30,000 units in 2015. At the same time, the proportion of pure electric vehicles and plug-in units was taken into account. According to the average demand of 500,000 yuan/vehicle, the demand for power batteries for the new energy buses was increased. Pulling about 15 billion yuan, of which batteries will reach about 12 billion.
Judging from the logic of investment, as China's power battery is still in its early stages of growth, the current base is very low, and it has a direct direct benefit for companies that already have production technology and capacity—there are certain technical barriers to power batteries and the certification cycle is long. , And the expansion of production takes some time, therefore, the power battery is the most critical link in the industry chain. Haitong Securities also learned from the survey that the orders for the power batteries of various manufacturing companies are full and are currently in a state of extreme demand.
In the choice of specific investment targets, we can focus on Topband shares, and the company has been certified by Jinlong and Wuzhoulong. In addition, Duo Duo Duo is actively involved in the bus supply chain process and will directly benefit from the heavy volume of electric buses.