The trend of international oil prices falling for three weeks was reversed on November 6th, 2012, and the oil customers who hold the refined oil price adjustment mentality may have to wait and see for some time. The market believes that the international oil price is difficult to determine afterwards, so there is a great uncertainty in the opening price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products.

According to the information, the change rate of crude oil movements in the three places on November 6, 2012 was -3.47%, and the business community also gave -3.51% of the data. However, the price of Brent oil and WTI oil prices on the same day contradicted the tendency of the recent drop in crude oil prices, of which Brent rose 3.10% on the 6th to reach $111.07 per barrel. Dubai and Cinta oil prices also rose by 1.69% and 3.96%, respectively, to 105.10 US dollars / barrel and 110.00 US dollars / barrel.

The market believes that the international oil price is difficult to determine afterwards, so there is a great uncertainty in the opening price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products.

The analysis report of Guotai Junan Securities believes that the decline in international crude oil in the past few days is due to the news that the US may release emergency heating oil stocks after the hurricane “Sandy” has strongly suppressed the oil market.

However, the rise in international oil prices on November 6th was related to the market’s expectation of Obama’s re-election. An analyst who has long paid close attention to the oil industry told reporters that Obama has consistently adopted loose economic policies. The devaluation of the dollar will have a greater supporting role in maintaining high raw material prices.

Another point of view is that international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate. With the increase of winter energy demand and the decline of inventory supply after the hurricane, oil prices have grown stronger, but the European economic trend and the US policy toward the Middle East will be an important factor in determining the price trend in the later period. "If Obama takes a tough policy toward the Middle East after re-election, international oil prices will undoubtedly rise."

Therefore, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products, which was previously considered as “stuck”, may be a new variable because it is difficult to break through the rate of change of -4%.

Prior to this, the market generally predicted that the rate of change in crude oil in the three places could be “broken four” as soon as this Friday, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment window may open next week, and many gas stations are even ready for price adjustment. Many petrol stations in Shanghai have lowered the retail price of gasoline No. 93 for some time. Some gas stations have reduced prices by 0.2 yuan a day, while others have attracted fuel purchasers at prices of 7.75 yuan/l from 7 pm to 7 am.

According to data provided by OilerNet, as of November 5, there were 1,070 gas stations in Shanghai, of which 187 were lower than the guide price, accounting for 17% of the total, and the price reduction ranged from 0.02 to 0.5 yuan. This is much more than before the National Day promotional efforts: As of September 26, there were 142 gas stations in the Shanghai area that were below the gasoline guidance price of No. 93, and the price reduction ranged from 0.01 to 0.5 yuan.

The number of gas stations that engage in promotions in the Beijing area has also increased considerably. Oil customer network data show that as of November 5, there were 1,183 gas stations in Beijing, of which 314 gas stations were lower than the price of gasoline guidance at No. 92, accounting for 27% of the total, and price cuts ranged from 0.05 to 0.76 yuan. . On September 12 before the National Day, the number of gas stations in Beijing that were below the guidance price accounted for 17% of the total, and the price reduction ranged from 0.05 to 0.6 yuan.

However, in the absence of a substantial recovery in macro demand, the promotion of gas stations does not seem to be effective. The person in charge of a gas station in Shanghai told reporters that because of their gas stations near the highway, they started to reduce diesel prices from two months ago in order to attract trucks, but they have now adjusted 7.54 yuan/liter back to 7.92. Yuan/liter. “The effect is not significant in two months. There was no diesel sales of 200,000 liters in the month before sales promotion, and only 400,000 liters after sales, and at least 500,000 litres in good times.”

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