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At the dawn of 2013, entrepreneurs who rushed into the LED lighting (semiconductor lighting) industry at the beginning of the year found that although there were many orders, the profits were not as big as they thought.
Recently, the LED industry independent research institute Gaogong LED held its annual meeting in Guangzhou. The latest research data released by Zhang Xiaofei, the president of the organization, showed that the total output value of the LED industry in the first three quarters of this year was 263.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28, but most enterprises' revenue Growth, net profit has not increased simultaneously.
Zhang Xiaofei believes that with the rapid warming of the industry at the beginning of the year, the number of new entrants has increased dramatically, leading to more and more fierce competition in the industry. Many companies have lost money. In the next five years, the industry will face a major reshuffle.
The price war has run through the entire industry chain in the past two years. The LED industry has a serious overcapacity, and the tide of bankruptcy has frequently hit. At the beginning of this year, with the opening of the LED lighting market, the entire industry chain is booming. Despite the surge in orders from companies, the fierce price war has run through the entire industry chain.
The Tongfang shares engaged in upstream chip production felt an obvious price competition. It can be said that chip manufacturers bring high-speed development opportunities to the entire LED industry, because we are constantly engaged in price competition. Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tongfang, said with a smile, in 2013, domestic chip makers reduced the price of chips to between 20 and 30 in the past. This data can only be completed by Chinese companies.
Wang Lianghai believes that the price war will last at least two years, but the price is basically stable, and there is not much room for price reduction in the future, because the chip is unlikely to reduce costs. In the future, we will enter an era of product performance competition, the same price, to see who's product performance is better.
For the midstream package manufacturers, despite the rapid start of the downstream LED lighting market this year, the price competition between the peers is still very fierce. Downstream manufacturers don't have any loyalty at all, so there are a lot of things to do to grab customers on the price. A package manufacturer told the Securities Times reporter.
Downstream LED lighting applications are equally competitive. Due to the government's energy-saving and emission-reduction tasks and the launch of the European market, especially in Europe, the domestic LED lighting manufacturers have become more and more competitive in the field of engineering lighting and indoor lighting. At the same time, due to the low technical threshold, some foreign companies have entered this market. New entrants often seize the market with low-cost strategies.
In addition to the price war, the downstream sector has also launched a dealer resource grab. Sun Yong, general manager of Sunshine Lighting, has a deep understanding of this. He analyzed that in addition to upstream and downstream cooperation and self-built channels, more lighting companies in China are currently implementing vertical integration of supply chains. Many upstream manufacturers (providers providing light source devices) Direct access to downstream channels.
In the future, the market space is still very large. Although the LED business executives attending the conference almost said in unison that the industry will not increase revenues, and how they will be laid out in the coming year, they all agree that the market space is still very large in the future. See who can get to the end, the left is king.
The optimism of the industry comes from the support of the incandescent light exiting the road map. In the past few years, Japan, the European Union, the United States and China have launched roadmaps for incandescent lamps, stipulating the elimination of high-energy incandescent lamps in the next few years and encouraging the replacement of low-pollution LED lamps. This year coincides with the final year of the EU's incandescent light exiting the road map. Therefore, at the beginning of this year, companies engaged in LED lighting clearly felt that orders from the European market were coming.
Guan Yong believes that there is no room in the Japanese market. The European market has entered fierce competition this year. The biggest opportunity in the next year or two depends on the US market, because the US will eliminate 40-watt to 60-watt incandescent lamps next year. The Chinese market may have to go a little further, as the Chinese version of the incandescent light exiting the road map also allows incandescent lamps to survive for several years. We can thus predict which year the next LED industry summit will be.
However, under fierce market competition, some companies may not be able to wait for the next industry peak. According to the data released by Gaogong LED, there are nearly 20,000 companies engaged in LED production in China. Zhang Xiaofei predicts that these companies will probably be less than half in the next five years.
Zhang Xiaofei predicts that industrial integration is the trend of the times. In the future, there will be about 10 domestic chip manufacturers, and the midstream packaging factory will be reduced by about 50, while the downstream application manufacturers will be reduced from the current 15,000 to less than 10,000. Enterprises with profits below 10 million yuan will no longer exist.