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2009 international car market where there is sunny
Before the compilation: At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, many auto industry inside and outside people expressed the same wish on different occasions. He hoped that the economic environment in 2009 would be better and the haze of the industry would be dispersed as soon as possible. In 2008, a sudden financial crisis caused many things that originally thought it was impossible to happen, and it turned many good wishes into nothing. In 2009, what are the prospects for several major international automotive markets? This paper forecasts the trend of the international automobile market in 2009 based on the GDP forecast of each country in the new year, combined with the supporting policies of the auto industry that have been or may be issued by various governments.
U.S. auto market like "Lean dead camel"
Predicted sales of 12 million vehicles
The headline article in the last issue of the 2008 edition of the "Car News" of the United States raises the question with an eye-catching headline: "In 2009, will auto sales bottom out?" The newspaper website launched "Assuming that the US economy will recover in 2010, car sales will be How much?" The survey. As of press time, 31% of the 3,890 people who participated in the vote thought it was between 10 million and 11 million, and 37% believed that it was between 12 and 13 million. In other words, over half of voters believe that even if the economy recovers, the annual sales of American cars will not exceed 13 million vehicles.
Since statistics have not yet been announced, a U.S. automotive website predicts that the country’s car sales may reach 850,000 vehicles in December last year, down 38.4% year-on-year. In 2008, the U.S. car sales may be only 13 million vehicles.
People in the financial industry are generally not optimistic about the prospects of the US economy in 2009. According to an agency's forecast of 57 economists surveyed, the growth rate of US GDP in 2009 was about -1%. The U.S. Department of Commerce’s communique shows that after revision, U.S. GDP grew by -0.5% in the third quarter of 2008.
The economic downturn hardly allows consumers to restore confidence in a short period of time, and the credit crunch will make the market more deserted. At the end of last year, SSM Automotive Information Consulting Co., Ltd. (CSM) forecasted that the country’s 2009 car sales are expected to be 11.5 million vehicles. Prior to this, Global Vision and JDPower’s sales forecast for the US auto market in 2009 was 13.4 million units and 13.2 million units respectively.
The impending GM and Chrysler have already received the government’s $17.4 billion loan commitment. If the two companies use the money properly, it is not impossible to change the situation. When the newly elected President Barack Obama campaigned to the automotive industry frequently, he would probably implement a policy favorable to the market after he took office. Based on the above reasons, this newspaper predicts that the sales volume of the US automobile market in 2009 will be around 12 million.
Japan's economic downturn is also the same
Predicted sales of 4.9 million vehicles
In 2008, it is very likely that it will become the fourth year of continuous decline in sales volume in Japan's auto market. As early as the end of 2007, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association had predicted that in 2008 Japan's domestic car sales are likely to fall to the lowest level in 26 years.
Due to the limited domestic demand, most Japanese automakers are actively exploring overseas markets. In recent years, the wage level of Japanese nationals has continued to decline, resulting in sluggish consumption growth. In addition, the aging of the population has become increasingly prominent, and the demand for limited cars in Japan has been further squeezed.
In 2008, the financial turmoil made the Japanese auto market more sluggish. According to statistics from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association, the country’s vehicle sales in November 2008 (excluding mini cars and mini trucks) were 216,000, a year-on-year drop of 27.3%. The association believes that in 2008 the Japanese market car sales may hit a new low since the 1974 oil crisis.
Japanese automakers are more sensitive to changes in market demand. Foreign news shows that due to the financial crisis and the global economic slowdown, Japan’s 12 auto manufacturers’ total global production in 2008 was reduced by 1.9 million units. At the same time, car companies began mass layoffs in Japan. In 2008, Toyota cut 20% of Japanese employees. The company plans to lay off 3,000 temporary employees by the end of March this year. Since November of last year, Mitsubishi Motors has successively reduced the number of dispatched employees and temporary workers in domestic factories by 1,000.
The governments of the United States, France, Germany, and Britain have already or plan to implement the auto industry rescue plan, and the Japanese government also plans to do so. The Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, Junichi Jun, said recently that the Japanese government will refer to the U.S. government’s rescue methods and assist the auto industry if necessary. The Chairman of the Japan Automobile Industry Association and Honda Motor Co., Chairman of the Honda Motor Co., recently answered the media’s question on whether “Japan’s manufacturers would seek financial assistance from their governments†and said that depending on the circumstances, they would take action if necessary. At the cabinet meeting of the Economic Countermeasures on December 19, 2008, Japanese government officials pointed out that the government expects the GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2009 to be zero. This is the first time since the fiscal year 2002 that the Japanese government has forecasted zero growth in GDP in the country.
Judging from the current situation, the Japanese automobile market may remain depressed in 2009. According to the latest market demand forecast report issued by the Japan Automobile Industry Association, the total demand for new cars in Japan, including mini vehicles, trucks, and buses, is expected to be 4.86 million. The organization predicts that the total sales of new cars in Japan will be approximately 5.11 million in 2008, a decrease of 5.5% from the previous year.
In 2009, the economic environment deteriorated, and factors such as corporate earnings, employment rate, and national income decline will affect Japan’s auto consumption. It is estimated that the country’s car sales this year will be approximately 4.9 million vehicles.
Good policy helps the Russian auto market warmer
Predicted sales of 2.6 million vehicles
The financial crisis has caused the once-fast-growing Russian auto market to slow down. From this storm's impact on Russia’s macro economy, it is not difficult to imagine the impact on the country’s auto market. The World Bank predicts that in 2009 Russia's GDP will increase by about 3%. The decline in oil prices in the international market and the financial spillover that caused the liquidity shortage in the financial system will constrain the country’s economic growth. Statistics from the Russian Federal Bureau of Statistics show that in 2007, the country’s GDP grew by 8.1%. According to the World Bank, the country’s GDP growth in 2008 may drop from the high level in 2007 to 6%.
Russia's auto sales in 2008 have been hit by the financial crisis. The latest statistics released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association show that in November 2008, sales of foreign brand cars in the Russian market fell by 15% year-on-year, the first time in four years. In order to reduce inventory and transform production lines, Ford Motor Company suspended the Russian plant operations for nearly a month from December 24, 2008. The Russian carmaker also stopped production for two weeks in November last year due to reduced market demand.
Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, the Russian Bureau of Statistics forecasted that in 2008, the country’s automobile sales will be about 3 million, and in 2009 it will increase to 4 million. Today, the agency has postponed the expected time to achieve the annual sales target of 3 million vehicles to 2010 and postpone the target of 4 million vehicles to 2012. The agency predicts that in 2009 Russia’s auto sales will decline 8.8% to 2.6 million vehicles.
Recently, the Russian government introduced a series of supporting policies for the auto industry. In 2009, the Russian local auto companies will receive 70 billion rubles in loans guaranteed by the country. The Russian government plans to provide a total of 110 billion roubles of secured loans to buy auto bonds worth 1200 billion roubles. In addition, starting in 2009, the Russian consumers who buy domestic vehicles (including transnational vehicle manufacturers that are assembled in Russian vehicles) selling domestic vehicles at a price of 350,000 roubles will be provided with a loan equivalent to 2/3 of the total vehicle price. With a term of 3 years, the annual interest rate is 8.7% (the current annual interest rate for similar loans is as high as 26%).
With the support of the government, the sales volume of the Russian automobile market in 2009 is expected to exceed 2.6 million units, hitting 2.8 million vehicles.
The automobile market in India is affected by the financial crisis
Predicted sales of 1.5 million vehicles
According to the statistics of the Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association, in November 2008, the sales volume of sedan in India was 83,000 vehicles, which was a drop of nearly 20% year-on-year, which was the largest monthly decline in eight years. In the same month, sales of commercial vehicles in the country fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, which was the first time India saw sales of different types of vehicles shrink in the same month.
In November 2008, South Korea’s Hyundai’s sales in India fell by 23.75%, and product inventories increased significantly. The company has announced the reduction of 2,000 Indian temporary workers. In November, Toyota's Indian subsidiary sold only 2,000 new vehicles, a drop of up to 50% year-on-year. In order to digest the inventory, the company began to phase out production in December last year.
Affected by the financial crisis, India's economic growth slowed down. A well-known securities company predicts that India's GDP will increase by approximately 7.2% in the 2008 fiscal year, and the country's GDP growth rate will decline to the lowest point in 7 years, about 6.0%. The Indian Central Bank’s forecast for GDP growth in the country’s fiscal year 2009 is 7.5% to 8.0%. According to sources, India’s minister of heavy industry has discussed with Indian Prime Minister Singh the measures to stimulate demand in the country’s cars.
As the automobile market in India is greatly affected by the financial crisis, sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in India are expected to barely reach 1.5 million in FY09.
German car market may bottom out
Predicted sales of 3 million vehicles
Recently, Volkswagen Group requested the German government to provide 10 billion euros of loans to balance the excess spending on new car sales. Wen Daon, the president of Volkswagen, said that in 2009 the company's domestic sales will be 10% lower than the previous year. According to foreign reports, the German Automobile Industry Association (VDA) has suggested that the government follow the example of the U.S. government and provide rescue loans for domestic automakers. A few months ago, Opel Motors officially handed over a rescue request to the German government, hoping to get a loan of 1 billion euros to ensure that the company can operate normally in 2009.
The prospect of the German auto market this year is not optimistic. Willie Ditz, dean of the Geislingen School of Automotive Economics in Germany, predicted that by the end of the year, 30,000 German motor workers would be unemployed. The current 9,500 car dealerships will have 1,500 closed or merged. The VDA recently predicted that new car sales in Germany may fall below 3.1 million in 2008 and may drop to 2.9 million this year. According to Weisman, chairman of the association, the German auto market has a declining trend with unprecedented reduction and impact. Conibert Schmidt, the managing director of the association, believes that the adverse effects of the financial crisis on the auto industry reveal the tip of the iceberg.
Statistics show that in the first 11 months of 2008, the sales volume of cars on the German market was 2.86 million, which was 1.5% lower than the worst case in the same period in the previous decade.
With the passage of time, all sectors of the German GDP forecast for 2009 also turned negative from positive growth. The Federal Bank of Germany has announced that it has substantially lowered its expectations for the German economy for the next two years. It is expected that the country's GDP will decline by 0.8% in 2009, and the largest annual decline in 16 years may occur.
Whether the German government will rescue the domestic auto industry is still unknown. In November 2008, the German government had stated that any support provided to the automotive industry must be studied in detail and that the government's talks with the troubled Opel Company did not mean that other companies could take a ride.
Considering the economic recession and the government's attitude to assist the domestic auto industry, it is not yet clear that Germany's auto sales in 2009 will not exceed 3 million.
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