Dr. Wang Haibin, a doctoral student in the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University who is a well-known petroleum researcher in China, said in an interview with reporters that due to rapid growth in oil consumption in emerging developing countries such as China and India, especially China, oil consumption increased by more than 10% last year. Therefore, in the future, China will be the country most affected by high oil prices. According to the forecast of the Development Research Center of the State Council, by 2020, China’s motor vehicles will consume 256 million tons of oil, accounting for 86% of China’s oil consumption. In recent years, China’s oil dependence on foreign investment has been rising steadily, and may exceed 60% in the future.

Opportunities in new areas

"What is certain is that the impact of high oil prices on domestic auto companies is unavoidable. However, due to the fact that China's refined oil has not yet been liberalized, how much of this impact is currently still not judged." Li Dan, a researcher at Galaxy Securities Automotive Industry, told reporters Continuously higher oil prices may change consumers' car purchase options in the future and provide opportunities for the development of domestic new energy vehicles. Great Wall Securities also judged that the sedan market, which accounted for the largest share of automobiles this year, will not be able to maintain the growth rate of about 25% last year, and the growth rate may drop to 18%. At the same time, due to the rising costs of oil and steel prices and the increasing competition in the car market, it will cause The profitability of vehicle companies is reduced. Therefore, in order to obtain new profit points, companies will inevitably compete in the new energy field.

In order to encourage the development of new energy vehicles, the state has not only strengthened management in laws and regulations. In October last year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the “Regulations for the Management of Production Access to New Energy Vehicles”. It also disclosed that it will support the development of policies. In recent days, the news that the country is brewing a plan to purchase tax-free purchases of diesel vehicles and new energy vehicles has triggered a heated discussion in the industry. More practically, following the Chery (parameter configuration gallery), the newly announced 164th batch of vehicle manufacturers and product admittance catalogs, 7 new energy vehicles have been approved for mass production.

Actively invest in technology war

In this long-running but just-launched technical competition, all parties are already gearing up. We can see that Japan occupies the frontier of hybrid technology; Europe is at the forefront of diesel technology; and the United States is making great strides toward hydrogen power. It is worth mentioning that the automakers of their own brands are also actively investing in this technical war. BYD Auto, which started as a new energy flag, has made it clear that it will move forward in two different directions: hybrid power and pure power. Xia Zhibing, general manager of BYD Auto Sales, points out that the future of pure electric vehicles E6 and plans for this year's volume The production of F6 (parameter configuration library) DM and its series will be BYD's unique weapon to win over the automotive industry.

Concerning the controversy over whether the future of energy-saving and new energy vehicles is more in line with national conditions, some auto companies such as Huatai, Great Wall, Jianghuai, etc. have invested heavily in diesel vehicles. “But because diesel vehicles are currently only used in the commercial vehicle sector, especially the heavy-duty truck industry, the dieselization of passenger cars is also limited by agricultural diesel, which makes its prospects in the Chinese market unclear.” said Li Dan, researcher of Galaxy Securities Auto Industry. . The Analyst analyst also believes that in solving the problems of diesel engine specific applications, the domestic diesel engine technology, the supply of refined oil that meets the emission standards, and the renewal of the manufacturing technology of the enterprise, etc., still cannot be avoided during the promotion process. Challenging issues.

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