The trend of economic development is complicated

At present, China's economic trend is becoming more complicated and it cannot be avoided. Experts pointed out that in the face of a complicated situation, the first thing China must do is not to abandon the manufacturing industries that it is good at. It is necessary to use Japan as a mirror to achieve a "soft landing" of the economy and expand domestic demand to prevent cold spells in the manufacturing industry. We must expedite the phase-out and compression of backward production capacity and excess industries, and increase policy support for advanced manufacturing, high-end equipment manufacturing and emerging industries to form a new pattern of equipment manufacturing.

The intrinsic structural contradiction of the equipment manufacturing industry needs to be cracked. The data released by relevant agencies shows that in the second quarter of this year, the economic prosperity index of the equipment manufacturing industry fell by 0.5 points from the previous quarter, and the early warning index fell 3.4 points from the previous quarter, and it went to the “Green Light District” center line. Lower area. In general, China's equipment manufacturing industry is still at a relatively normal level despite the fact that it has not experienced significant declines under the influence of macroeconomic control and Other factors. In particular, in the long run, there is still a relatively strong driving force for development. However, it must also be seen within the Chinese equipment manufacturing industry. The contradictions are more prominent.

As a leading industry, equipment manufacturing plays a decisive role in the development of the national economy. For manufacturing giants like China, the prosperity of their equipment manufacturing industry directly reflects the degree of prosperity of the national economy. From the perspective of industry structure, mechanical equipment manufacturing, especially construction machinery, benefited from large-scale deployment of government investment and infrastructure projects. The growth rate was rapid, and the scale expansion was rapid. The increase of loaders and concrete machinery was over 33%. The early opening of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail will also benefit the production enterprises of high-speed trains, and this prosperity will continue to benefit from the further acceleration of the pace of the high-speed railways in the railway sector. However, with the gradual reduction of government investment, the pace of real estate development has slowed down, project construction projects will also tend to be stable, and the demand for construction machinery will also gradually decrease. At the same time, as the debt of the railway sector continues to expand, and the profits formed each year are only sufficient to repay the principal and interest at the end of the period, it is worth observing whether it is necessary to continue large-scale investment and whether it can maintain such a strong momentum. Therefore, the impact on high-speed train manufacturers and their related industries also needs careful analysis and consideration.

From the viewpoint of ownership structure, state-owned equipment manufacturing enterprises still play the most important role. For example, China National Machinery Industry Corporation entered the world's top 500 list for the first time with a turnover of US$22.487 billion and ranked 434. China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation It also ranked 462th with US$21 billion in operating income. Privately-owned equipment manufacturing enterprises are generally “mediocre” because of their relatively small scale and weak market competitiveness, and because they are unfair and unreasonable in terms of resource allocation, they are difficult to compete with state-owned enterprises. Under the background of private enterprises occupying "half of the country", their position in the equipment manufacturing industry has shown a relatively declining trend, which cannot but arouse great concern.

From the point of view of industrial structure, traditional manufacturing, low-end manufacturing, and even overcapacity industries still occupy a considerable proportion in equipment manufacturing. Not only are the benefits of input and output low, the competitiveness of the international market is not strong, but also the consumption of resources, There is a big gap between developed countries and the developed countries in terms of land use and environmental protection. Although some key enterprises have gradually shifted their investment in high-end equipment manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, due to the impact of their performance and short-term interests, the transformation speed is not fast enough, and the transformation objectives are not clear enough, especially the lack of independent innovation consciousness. The phenomenon behind others is more serious. For investments such as solar energy and wind power, not only do most of them invest in the low-end part of emerging industries, they are too concentrated, and it is very likely that there will be excess capacity in the low-end segment.

Undoubtedly, how can the equipment manufacturing industry maintain a good momentum of development, consolidate its position in the international market, and increase its competitiveness in the international market? Now it has become an urgent issue that needs to be discussed and resolved. For example, according to the industrial revitalization plan, the development measures for the equipment manufacturing industry should be intensified, and the development priorities of the equipment manufacturing industries in various parts of the country should be determined in accordance with the requirements of “one game of chess” in the country to prevent duplication of investment and redundant construction and reduce investment losses.

Structural transformation is the key to revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry. On the one hand, through technological innovation and equipment renewal, large-scale upgrading of traditional industries, upgrading of the level and level of traditional equipment manufacturing, strengthening the market competitiveness of traditional equipment manufacturing, resolutely eliminating obsolete technologies, and resolutely shutting down resource consumption On the other hand, according to the development trend of the international equipment manufacturing industry, through technological introduction and independent innovation, we must vigorously develop advanced equipment manufacturing and high-end manufacturing, and vigorously develop new industries.

In order to maintain balanced development, it is also necessary to focus on two aspects: First, we must adhere to both dimensions, and in the process of developing advanced equipment manufacturing, we must not only support large enterprises but also support small and medium-sized enterprises. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises that have important auxiliary roles in advanced equipment manufacturing and enterprises engaged in basic manufacturing such as basic processes, basic materials, and basic components and components, must support policies and funds to help them improve their technological content and improve product quality. Promote the improvement of the overall level of equipment manufacturing; Second, we must vigorously encourage private capital to invest in advanced equipment manufacturing, high-end manufacturing and emerging industries, in terms of policies and state-owned enterprises without discrimination, the formation of state-owned and private investment "two-wheel drive" a good pattern.

In terms of strengthening policy support, efforts should be made to accelerate the elimination of and squeezing outdated production capacity, surplus industries, and increasing policy support for advanced manufacturing, high-end equipment manufacturing, and emerging industries so as to replace traditional industries as soon as possible and form a new pattern of equipment manufacturing. . At the same time, enterprises should be encouraged to practice “inherently,” and enterprises with strong independent innovation capabilities, high levels of research and development, and high ratios of R&D investment to sales revenue should increase support for fiscal funds.

The expansion of domestic demand to prevent the cold spells of the manufacturing industry from hitting the global economic slump has continued for more than three years, while the Chinese economy has maintained its momentum of rapid growth in general. In the first half of this year, China’s economic growth rate was 9.6%. From a macro perspective, this is obviously a fairly good growth rate. However, good data does not hide the structural problems in the economy. In manufacturing-intensive areas such as Dongguan and Wenzhou, some companies that had previously performed well have suddenly closed down. Whether or not there will be a wave of closures remains to be seen, but China's economic trend is becoming increasingly complex and cannot be avoided.

The most direct way for enterprises to encounter difficulties is to inject funds to maintain the operation of the company. The current difficulty is that the trend of higher prices has not yet been completely contained, and it is difficult for the People’s Bank of China to make a choice to immediately relax credit. How management handles the current difficulties is a considerable issue.

China’s rapid economic development has become the world’s second largest economy, which is quite similar to the development process in Japan that year. After the war, Japan’s economy quickly started to achieve rapid growth for nearly 30 years by the 1980s. Since then, Japan has been under pressure to appreciate its currency. In order to help companies accelerate investment, enhance industrial structure, and eliminate pressure on the appreciation of the yen, the Japanese government adopted a policy of depressing interest rates and loosening credit. This policy successfully dispelled the yen appreciation crisis from 1985 to 1986. From the end of 1986 to the beginning of 1991, Japan’s economy was extremely prosperous, asset prices were rapidly expanding, and consumption, domestic investment, and overseas investment were fully expanded. Japan quickly became the world’s second-largest economy, and it was known as “Heisei's boom”.