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According to research, the company's orders are showing a month-on-month rise after entering the year 2009 and have been increasing month-on-month for three consecutive months. The analysis was mainly driven by the government’s investment of RMB 4 trillion. The recovery of orders was mainly concentrated on the engine of dump trucks for construction machinery engines and heavy trucks that are compatible with construction machinery. This point can be confirmed again in the sales volume of the industry.
It is estimated that the heavy-duty truck market (including whole vehicles, non-integrated vehicles and semi-trailer tractors) will be about 5% lower than that in 2008. The sales of Weichai Power Engine, Fast Transmission, and Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck are expected to be lower than those of 08. The annual growth rate will be +5.2%, -6.5% and -10% respectively.
The first quarter of 2009 will show a significant improvement over the fourth quarter of 2008
The company’s recent announcement estimated that sales revenue in 2008 was approximately RMB 33.1 billion, operating profit was between RMB 2-43.8 billion, and total profit was between RMB 2.6 billion and 2.9 billion. The total profit of the company in the first three quarters was 3.04 billion yuan, so it was estimated that Weichai Power's loss in the fourth quarter of 2008 was about 1.4-4.4 billion yuan, and EPS was estimated to be about 0.17 yuan in 4Q08.
Looking forward to the first quarter of 2009, due to the high base in 2008, the year-on-year decline in performance will be unavoidable, but compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, revenue is expected to grow by around 30%. Considering that China National Heavy Duty Truck EGR has forced the company to carry out product promotion, gross profit margin has not been significantly improved compared with the same period of last year. Based on the above, it is estimated that in 2009 1Q will achieve about EPS 0.41 yuan, compared with the 2008 -Q4 of -0.17 yuan will significantly increase.
Accurate strategic positioning is the primary planning problem for the company's mid-to-long term development. Is it an integrated vehicle manufacturer or an independent general-purpose parts supplier? The bank believes that this issue will be the future development of Weichai Power. One of the most important thinking questions. Accurate strategic positioning will directly determine the direction and space for the company's long-term development. In this regard, we have confidence in the decision-making capabilities of the company's management.
Company evaluation and investment advice
To sum up, assuming that the corporate income tax rate is 15%, we will adjust the 08-10 EPS estimate of the company to RMB 2.25, RMB 2.03 and RMB 2.42, respectively, after taking into account the capital adjustment after the transfer. Adjust the target price of the company's A shares to RMB 36.5, which is equivalent to 18 times PE in 2009 EPS, and the current potential upside is 21.3%. Adjust the target price of the company’s H shares to HK$ 23, which is equivalent to 10 times PE in 09 EPS, currently potential The upside was 47.4%, maintaining the "overweight" rating for A-shares and H-shares.