Recently, at the 11th Bus Market Research Conference, Yan Zhenqing, deputy secretary-general of the China Highway Society Bus Branch, analyzed some problems faced by the passenger car market in the first half of this year and put forward some suggestions for the difficulties faced by the industry. In addition, he predicted that the passenger car market situation in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half of the year, and passenger car sales will drop by about 5% year-on-year. Motor Home Parts is used on motor homes. Motor homes, also called "homes on wheels", both "room" and "car" two big functions, but its attribute or car, is a kind of portable and has the basic facilities of car home. Motor Home Parts,Zinc Die Casting Motor Mount,Zinc Die Casting End Cap,Zinc Die Casting NINGBO ZHENHAI BOLANG METAL PRODUCT FACTORY , https://www.diecastingdie.com
According to relevant data, in the first half of 2014, 50 companies sold a total of 94,240 passenger cars over 5 meters, down 9.09% year-on-year, of which seat passenger cars (road passenger cars) fell 15.99%, school buses fell 32.24%, and bus passengers increased by 8.25%.
Qi Zhenqing believes that from the data point of view, the passenger car market performance in the first half of this year is very bad, the demand for highway passenger cars is declining, the downward momentum is still unable to contain, and the improvement is nowhere in sight; the school bus is not only no longer beautiful, but there is an unreasonable diving trend, prospects. Not good; although the bus is growing, the growth range is too concentrated, and the number of companies with falling sales is far more than that of rising companies (25 declines, only 17 growth).
From the perspective of market performance, Zhen Zhenqing believes that the main features are concentrated in four aspects: First, the seat passenger car has become the hardest hit area, and the need to curb the decline needs to rely on the top design; second, the school bus is in a worrying situation, the supporting policy is an attitude; the third is the bus The development of passenger cars is not balanced. The growth in the first half of this year does not have universal significance. Fourth, the export of passenger cars is highly anticipated, but the lack of channels is still the bottleneck.
The export performance of bus companies is polarized. According to relevant data, in the first half of this year, 19,749 buses of various types were exported, with an export value of 6.004 billion yuan, up 25.39% and 43.45% respectively over the same period of last year, among which the export volume of large passenger cars and The export volume increased by 11.31% and 35.64%, the medium-sized passenger car increased by 13.59% and 75.34%, and the light passenger car increased by 38.26% and 43.28%. The large growth of light passenger cars mainly relied on the large and small Golden Dragon sea lion series.
Yan Zhenqing analyzed the status quo of exports. He believes that there are three points worthy of attention: the export performance of large passenger cars is not good; the export performance of bus companies is polarized; channel construction is still the bottleneck.
In the first half of this year, 27 out of 50 companies involved in exports, a decrease of three over the same period last year. The number of enterprises with exports exceeding 100 million yuan has reached 9 and 3 enterprises with more than 1 billion yuan have been far more than the same period of last year. Yutong has even exceeded 2 billion yuan. The stronger the export of passenger cars is already strong. obvious. The overall export status of enterprises is polarized. Among the 27 companies, 10 have increased their exports by more than 50%, and 7 of them are among the top 15 companies. There are also 9 companies with a decline of more than 50%, of which 7 The home is not in the top 15.
Yu Zhenqing analyzed from the perspective of industry development. He believes that the status of bus companies in the industry and the status of exports should be matched. Only the “partial†enterprises that only do domestic market or export only will not go too far. The polarization of exports is also a process of big waves and sand washing, which has a promoting effect on the industry reshuffle; from the internal resource allocation, these two market resources complement each other, promote common growth, complement each other, and can reasonably avoid risks, two legs Walking is very beneficial to the development of enterprises. The polarization of bus exports will further accelerate the pace of market resources to concentrated enterprises.
"The construction of export channels has always been a problem for passenger car exports. Information is asymmetrical. Bus exports are like blind people riding horses. In this situation, talking about development and talking about efficiency are all talks." Yu Zhenqing recently visited some companies. According to the feedback information, he believes that the problem of poor channel in passenger car exports has been very serious.
The bus industry faces policy, market, technology and operational risks. Regarding the status quo of the bus industry, Zhen Zhenqing believes that the bus industry must first do three things: control risks, innovate business models, and dare to issue industry voices.
Yan Zhenqing believes that the risk of the bus industry is mainly concentrated in four aspects: first, policy risk; second, market risk; third, technical risk; fourth, operational risk. The so-called policy risk, that is, the development of the industry and the national policy are not synchronized, it is recommended that bus companies arrange special institutions or special personnel to engage in policy research, and take advantage of the trend to get twice the result with half the effort. Market risk is mainly reflected in the market concentration and the spread of the booth. It is recommended that companies learn to walk on both legs in the domestic and international markets. The technical risk is that the product is single and the resilience is insufficient. Second, the new product is not recognized by the market, and the third is the risk of technical investment. Any enterprise will have operational risks, and bus companies are concentrated in the risk of receivables risk and poor business continuity.
The unprecedented scale and speed of the innovative business model has changed the world economic landscape. Under the impact of e-commerce, smart phones and the Internet of Things, the shock brought by business model innovation has become a torrent of water. The nerve of industrial capital. Zhen Zhenqing believes that the voice of the industry is weak, and the policy does not pay enough attention to the difficulties of the industry. As the saying goes, "children who cry will have milk to eat." It stands to reason that passenger cars should be more favored by the policy, but the demand for road passenger cars is shrinking, and the school bus is sluggish. Although the bus passengers enjoy relatively more preferential policies, they are hard to attack the influence of the unspoken rules of the industry. The reality is very cruel. In view of this, the bus industry should dare to express its own voice to express its appeal and strive for a policy tilt.
The market situation in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half of the year. Zhen Zhenqing’s basic judgment on the passenger car market in the second half of the year is: the overall situation is not good, but better than the first half. According to the information feedback from the market, the orders for new energy buses will be gradually released in the second half of the year, and the export growth will further expand. Bus passenger cars and gas buses will also maintain strong growth momentum. It is expected that passenger car sales will drop by about 5% year-on-year. He expects that the growth rate of bus passenger cars is expected to be about 10%; the bus passenger cars above 5 meters are expected to increase by about 10%, and the total sales volume will reach 88,000 (the expected at the beginning of the year will remain unchanged); the decline of school buses will be narrowed, with a decrease of 10 About 2%, the total sales volume was 23,000; the total sales volume of passenger cars was 99,000, down about 12% year-on-year.
In addition, it is estimated that the total sales volume of passenger cars of more than 5 meters in 2014 will be 210,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of about 5%. Among them, the total sales volume of new energy buses in 2014 is expected to be 12,000 units (predicted by 1000 vehicles per month, and the target is expected to remain unchanged at the beginning of the year); gas buses will maintain an increase of around 20% in 2014, and the total sales volume is expected to be 53,000 units (predicted at the beginning of the year) The decline is mainly due to the poor market performance of gas-highway passenger cars; passenger car exports will increase by more than 40% (up 15 percentage points from the beginning of the year).
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