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The Middle East will still dominate the development of the petrochemical industry. Currently, the Middle East petrochemical industry has entered the third stage of investment development. If the current new ethylene project is realized, it is estimated that by the year 2008, the total capacity of the Middle East will increase from 12 million tons in 2006 to 2047. Ten thousand tons, of which Saudi Arabia was 8.88 million tons/year, Iran was 6.41 million tons/year, and other countries (Qatar, UAE, Kuwait) were 5.18 million tons/year. By 2010, some new ethylene and ethylene derivatives projects will be completed and put into operation in the Middle East. At that time, total ethylene production capacity will reach at least 25 million tons/year. 80% of the production of petrochemical products in the Middle East will be used for export, and the products will be exported to more than 70 countries. However, the main export markets are Asian markets dominated by China and India.
Relevant experts believe that in the context of the great development of the petrochemical industry in the Middle East, by 2020 some petrochemical production companies in Northeast Asia will scrap local crackers and be replaced by olefins and polyolefins produced by joint ventures from the Middle East. Some Western companies will also shut down their uncompetitive production facilities in the United States and Europe.
Low-cost raw materials in North Africa and Central Asia are concerned. In order to find cheap raw materials, some companies have turned their sights on North Africa and Central Asia. In Kazakhstan, where natural gas reserves are abundant in Central Asia, the large output of oil and natural gas raw materials has caused a serious imbalance in the economy of Kazakhstan. Despite its rich hydrocarbon resources, Kazakhstan has continued to import high-octane gasoline, aviation kerosene, lubricants, polyethylene and other petrochemical products for many years. In order to solve this problem, the Kazakhstan government proposed the development of petrochemical projects at the end of 2005 and two factories for the production of polyethylene and plastic in Atyrau. Some Western companies are optimistic about the country's rich oil and gas resources and its good prospects for development. They are rushing to invest and build factories.
In North Africa, Algeria has eight of the world's natural gas reserves and fourteenth crude oil reserves. The company's 1 million tonne/year cracker, Sonatrach, a state-owned refining/petrochemical company, has received six applications for joint venture projects. Libya, another important oil producer in North Africa, has abundant oil and gas reserves. Libya oil has the characteristics of good oil quality, shallow oil layer and easy development. Since the late 1970s, the Libyan government has been actively developing the petrochemical industry and now has the largest Lasounov petrochemical industrial conglomerate in Africa, producing chemical products such as ethylene, propylene and polyethylene. In addition, Libya also has seven factories producing methanol, ammonia, urea and liquefied gas, and a liquid chemical plant. The above-mentioned factories basically use natural gas as raw materials, and the products produced are mainly exported, except for a small amount of urea used for domestic consumption. In May 2007, Dow Chemical Co. announced that it had signed an agreement with Libya State Oil Company to operate cooperatively and expand the joint venture of Lisby Raswonuf petrochemical industry. At present, the production scale of the company's cracking furnace is still small. It can only produce 300,000 tons of ethylene per year, and the downstream installations include 160,000 tons/year of polyethylene.
Coal chemical industry will be greatly developed The continuous soaring of oil and natural gas prices has led more companies to use coal as feedstock for syngas production. Syngas can be used to produce methanol, but also olefins can be produced. It takes about two tons of coal to produce one ton of methanol. About 1 ton of methanol is needed to produce 1 ton of olefins (ethylene and propylene). In June 2007, the price of U.S. coal was approximately US$47.3/t. The rise in oil and gas prices is pushing the lower price raw materials for coal chemicals to the forefront.
The United States is rich in coal resources and the development of coal chemical industry is causing more and more attention in the United States. However, coal chemical projects are more difficult to operate, especially in the United States, where the cost of investing in coal chemical projects is significantly higher than that of natural gas-based plants. The US Department of Energy has begun tax cuts for coal technology projects, supporting advanced clean coal projects and coal gasification projects, and encouraging companies to enter this industry. It is expected that in the next few years, more companies in the United States will enter the coal chemical industry.
China's coal chemical industry strongly attracts foreign investors. The famous foreign companies currently participating in joint ventures in coal chemical projects in China include UOP, Shell, Dow Chemical, Lurgi, etc. The joint venture and cooperation projects include MTO, MTP, CTL, dimethyl ether, etc. . With the continuous development and improvement of coal chemical production technology and application markets, it is expected that China's coal chemical market will grow at a faster rate in the future. China has made unremitting efforts in the field of coal chemical industry, with emphasis on coal-based ammonia and urea, coal-based polyvinyl chloride and other products. Especially recently, the use of coal for methanol and other chemical products (BDO and its derivatives, etc.) is particularly important in China.
So far, coal-based production technology has not yet gained its appeal, partly because of its high capital cost, which is about 2-3 times that of ethane crackers. It requires multiple gasifiers to supply large methanol plants.
Bio-material Ethylene is highly valued Bio-ethylene is a large-scale biomass raw material, through the microbial fermentation of ethanol, and then under the action of the catalyst dehydration to ethylene. In the 1960s, countries such as Brazil, India, China, Pakistan, and Peru successively established industrial facilities for the dehydration of ethanol into ethylene. Although the process of producing ethylene from the thermal cracking of petroleum hydrocarbons has almost become the source of all ethylene, the research on the dehydration of ethanol into ethylene has not been abandoned. In 2004, China's largest 17,000 t/y bio-ethylene plant was successfully put into production at Anhui Fengyuan Group. Sinopec's Sichuan Vinylon Plant also had a 9000 t/y bio-ethylene plant.
In addition, Indonesia has two large ethanol crackers. Malaysia has a palm oil cracker that can use cheap renewable resources to produce ethylene. Malaysia and Indonesia are the world's largest palm oil production bases. If they can convert sufficient palm oil feedstocks into basic chemical raw materials such as ethylene, propylene and butylene that are in short supply, their economic value will far exceed those currently processed by palm oil. The value of general chemical products.
Compared with ethylene on the petroleum route, bio-ethylene has high purity, low cost for separation and purification, low investment, short construction period, and fast return, and is not limited by the distribution of resources. Therefore, in the era of acute shortage of petroleum resources, bio-ethylene will serve as a sustainable green chemical route that competes with the petroleum ethylene route. However, bio-ethylene still needs to solve some of the key technical issues of large-scale production, mainly low-cost ethanol production technology, ethanol dehydration to generate ethylene catalytic technology, process coupling and integration technology. Market analysts pointed out that there is still a long way to go in order to compete with the large-scale gas crackers in the Middle East in the production of ethylene from ethanol.
In order to alleviate the increasingly tight supply and demand of oil and gas and the pressure of rising prices, the development and utilization of non-oil and gas diversified resources have received extensive attention from countries. The global chemical industry has begun to enter the stage of diversification of raw material sources. In the future, the source of chemical raw materials will still be dominated by oil and gas, but other raw materials such as coal will be fairly developed based on market prices and needs.