Continuing slowdown in macro-economy growth, drastic decline in auto demand, excessive production capacity of self-owned brands, persistently fierce competition in low-end passenger vehicles, and persistent tight credit policies lead to unsatisfactory progress in recovery of heavy-duty truck sales and significant increase in raw material prices. Affected, in the first three quarters of this year, the profitability of listed companies in the entire vehicle and parts and components segment is hardly ideal.

However, in the overall downturn, due to the high-end and low-end market differences in the entire vehicle, parts and components companies also showed differentiation. The high price of luxury cars drove the growth of downstream supporting businesses; while the sales of low-end and mid-range vehicles did not result in a serious decline in some parts and components companies; on the other hand, the impact of the decline in commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks and mini-vehicles, on parts and components companies was also relatively high. prominent.

Overall performance is lower than expected

“A long time for the entire vehicle company will cause pressure to be divided into two parts. One is a dealer and the other is a component supporting enterprise. The downturn in the entire vehicle market this year will inevitably cause the parts and components industry to be hit, especially for heavy trucks. Parts and accessories companies supporting minicars.” Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive analyst, said that the three quarterly results of the auto and parts segment this year were lower than expected.

According to statistics from Southwest Securities, as of October 28, 18 companies and 45 companies in the vehicle and parts sectors respectively released the third quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2011, the accumulated operating income of 18 vehicle companies was 471.858 billion yuan, an increase of 13.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 20.234 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.82%; the cumulative operating income of 45 component companies was 110.029 billion yuan. Yuan, an increase of 7.50%, net profit of 10.626 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.46%.

It is particularly worth noting that "after the substantial expansion of the entire vehicle and components sector this year, the market value has actually shrunk." Southwest Securities analyst Liu Feng told reporters that since January to September this year, the vehicle and spare parts section The total share capital has increased substantially. From the beginning of the year to the end of the third quarter, the total share capital of the parts and components sector increased by 16.90%, an increase of 3.81 percentage points from the same period of last year; the total share of the entire vehicle segment increased by 21.17%, a substantial increase of 12.09 percentage points year-on-year. However, due to the cumulative decline of 16.81% in the vehicle industry sector index and the cumulative decrease in the component industry index of 23.96%, the substantial expansion of the two sectors did not bring about a substantial increase in the total market value. From the beginning of the year to the end of September, the total market value of the vehicle segment only increased by 4.64%, while the parts and components segment shrank by 14.44%.

“The industry’s historical average valuation is 35 and 49 times. The current valuation level is far below the industry average. The net outflow status of the two sectors in the third quarter is also very noteworthy,” Liu Feng said. According to statistics, in the third quarter, the net outflow of vehicles and parts and components was 1.283 billion yuan and 3.759 billion yuan; from January to September, the cumulative net outflow of funds in the two sectors was 2.525 billion yuan and 10.996 billion yuan respectively.

Liu Feng said that the entire vehicle and parts segment has expanded significantly, but the actual shrinkage of the market value and the cumulative net outflow of funds in the third quarter all indicate that the market is not optimistic about the entire vehicle and parts and components sectors.

Nothing to pick up in the fourth quarter

"If a company car fails to sell, the payment to the parts suppliers will be delayed. This will lead to an increase in the capital circulation pressure of the parts and components companies and even the occurrence of layoffs." Zhang Zhiyong said that due to the general expectation of high vehicle manufacturers last year, As a result, component suppliers have also made preparations for expansion, and the up-front costs of the expansion have already been amortized into the company's expenses, leading to increased costs for parts and components companies and a drop in profits.

Zhang Zhiyong thinks: “The pattern of parts and components will be basically determined in the three quarterly reports, and for the moment, there is still no good news to promote the recovery of the auto market in the fourth quarter. The recovery in the fourth quarter is basically hopeless.”

In this regard, CITIC Securities analysts Li Chunbo and Xu Yingbo also believe that high base and low-end vehicles may drag down the sales growth in the fourth quarter, while commercial vehicles are still relatively sluggish. It is expected that the annual automobile sales growth will be close to 3%.

"But it should also be noted that this kind of correction is beneficial to the survival of the fittest and promote the development of the entire industry." Zhang Zhiyong also pointed out that the low-speed growth of the automotive industry is conducive to mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, improve technology and expand the scale. In the future, family-owned parts and components companies should gradually be eliminated, and powerful manufacturers will form.

Heavy truck supplier is "very injured"

Due to the adjustment of the heavy truck market and the unclear implementation time of the national IV emission standards, the pressure on short-term performance of most of the downstream supporting companies also appeared in the three quarterly reports.

The Weifu Hi-Tech Third Quarter Report of the main engine fuel system products shows that in the third quarter, the company achieved sales revenue of 1.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 29.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 211 million yuan, compared to the same period of last year. It fell by 29.1%, a drop of 40.4% from the previous quarter.

Shenyin Wanguoguo analyst Xueqi Xue analyzed in the research report that, in the event that the overall prosperity of the heavy-duty truck industry has weakened, the company’s sales revenue and investment income both declined in the third quarter, causing the company’s performance to be lower than expected. CITIC Securities analysts believe that the main reason for the company's third-quarter earnings decline is the weak demand for downstream heavy trucks. In addition, the rapid depreciation of the euro against the renminbi in September has also affected Bosch Diesel's exchange losses.

The heavy truck engine crankshaft leader enterprise Tianrun crankshaw three quarterly report shows that the company achieved operating income of 313 million yuan in the third quarter, to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 37,913,300 yuan, respectively, down 2.47% and 20.23% year-on-year, but the company's overall in the first three quarters The data still maintained the growth trend. The revenue and net profit in the first three quarters were 1.12 billion yuan and 167 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 19.96% and 20.31% year-on-year, respectively, achieving a basic earnings per share of 0.34 yuan. The company expects its annual net profit growth to be within 30%. Last year, the company achieved a net profit of 222 million yuan.

“On the one hand, due to the continuous downsizing of the heavy truck and light truck industry, the company’s product sales are affected; on the other hand, due to the weakening of the heavy truck industry, the company’s product structure is tilted towards the medium and light crankshafts. The company’s gross profit margin in the third quarter was 24.8%, compared with the same period last year. It fell 8.2 percentage points.” Jiang Xueqing believes that due to the declining demand for heavy trucks, the company's gross profit margin fell sharply in the third quarter. It is expected that the company’s supply of heavy crankshafts to Cummins' US plant will gradually increase in the fourth quarter, the export value of crankshaft crankshaft will increase significantly, and gross profit margin will be realized. Bottomed out.

However, people in the industry believe that short-term heavy-duty truck parts will be affected by lower-than-expected vehicle demand, fluctuating raw material prices, increased competition in the common-rail system, further depreciation of investment income, further depreciation of the Euro, and a significant delay in the implementation of the National IV emission regulations. The release of corporate performance will continue to be under pressure.

Tire companies "difficult to escape"

In addition, the tire industry’s overall performance in the third quarter, which was significantly affected by rising raw material prices, was also not satisfactory.

As the world's largest rubber consumer and importer, China is also the fastest growing place in the global tire market. According to relevant data from the China Rubber Industry Association, China's tire market is currently worth about 8 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 9% of the world's tire market.

However, in the face of persistently high raw material prices such as natural rubber and steel and the unfavorable situation of Sino-US tire special security cases, both the operating income growth and net profit growth of the tire segment have narrowed. According to the statistics of China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch, from January to July, 44 member companies had a 22.4% year-on-year increase in sales revenue. Due to the substantial increase in raw material costs, total profit decreased by 14.2% year-on-year.

Analysts pointed out that the important reason for the decline in the performance of these companies is that, apart from rising raw material prices, due to fierce competition in the tire industry, product price lags behind the price increase of natural rubber, and the price increase rate is also smaller than the price increase rate.

The impact of these factors has also been further manifested in the third quarterly report of many tire companies.

Tire released the third quarter report that the first three quarters of the company's profit of 59.6666 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.18 percent. The quarterly report shows that the company's operating income in the first three quarters of 5.652 billion yuan, an increase of 26.04%, earnings per share of 0.16 yuan. Tire A said that the main reason for the change in performance was the increase in raw material prices during the reporting period, which increased production costs and led to lower profits.

Formerly the international tire giant Michelin, intending to jointly seize the market after the "Kumho Tire Case" double-money shares also "difficult to escape bad luck."

The Third Quarterly Report of Double Money Co., Ltd. shows that in the first three quarters of 2011, the company’s operating income was 8.425 billion yuan; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 127 million yuan, a decrease of 40%. Double money shares said that the change in performance was due to rubber in the first half of this year. The prices of major raw materials rose sharply, and purchase expenditures increased significantly. Due to the rapid increase in sales, accounts receivable increased accordingly, so that the net cash flow from operating activities in the current period did not improve and decreased compared with the same period of last year. The reason for the decrease in total profit is due to factors such as incremental cost of power generation, increase of business tax, and impairment of sales expense assets.

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