"This year's market is not good, and it is similar to 2008 and 2009. It is said that the yellow standard car is eliminated, and the national three car is upgraded, but the sales volume is not obvious." Lao Huang, who has done heavy truck business in Shanghai for nearly 10 years, told "First Financial Daily" reporter.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Environmental Protection released the national yellow label car elimination results in the first 10 months of 2014 on its website. The data shows that from January to October this year, the country has eliminated a total of 4,791,200 yellow-label vehicles and old cars. According to the plan, by the end of this year, the total planned elimination will reach 6 million. This number has excited the dealers represented by Lao Huang. Taking into account the implementation of various places, Laohuang did not have too high expectations for the market opportunities brought about by the elimination. However, "even if only 5% of the market conversion rate, there is no small increase." There are not a few people holding similar ideas. Before this, with the release of the national yellow-label vehicle elimination policy, many institutions and brokerages have said that "the yellow-label vehicle elimination will benefit the domestic commercial vehicle market. There has been a year-on-year rise." However, only two months away from 2015, the above statistics did not show a good trend in the market. On the contrary, the data showed that in October this year, the production and sales volume of domestic commercial vehicles were 286,400 and 278,300, respectively. It was down 11.7% and 14.9% year-on-year. It is understood that this is the seventh consecutive month of decline in the domestic commercial vehicle market. At the same time, in the truck market, an important market segment where yellow label vehicles exist, the decline in sales volume is more obvious. In the first 10 months of this year, the net production and sales volume of trucks decreased by more than 200,000 units.
So, what Mr. Huang is puzzled is, where did the market increment brought about by the expected yellow label car elimination go?
The elimination and update ratio is not 1:1
According to the inertia of the market, the elimination of old cars means the purchase of new cars. This is also an important reason why the industry has been very optimistic about the incremental benefits brought by this policy to the market. But a market player at China National Heavy Duty Truck told reporters that this 1:1 increment may be more suitable for the passenger car than the commercial vehicle market. "Commercial vehicles as production materials have a very close relationship with the macroeconomic environment, so the elimination of old cars and the purchase of new cars will definitely not be a 1:1 relationship," said the source.
Although it will not be a 1:1 relationship, at least there will be a certain promotion in quantity. Mr. Huang believes that in his view, the role of this promotion in increment is not obvious. "In my car owners, there are only a handful of cars to buy because of the old cars."
"This situation is understandable." The above-mentioned people of China National Heavy Duty Truck believe that. In his view, first of all, from the statistical point of view, the models that have been included in the elimination mission in the past two years are basically the models of 2002 or even before. These models are mainly concentrated in some small logistics companies or private hands, or It exists as an engineering vehicle. There are many models that have been scrapped or stopped. It is because there is no incentive policy before, and it is more troublesome to resell. Therefore, it has been in an "idle" state. Now even if the country has policies, it will be scrapped. No new purchase requirements will be generated afterwards. Secondly, some medium-sized or relatively large-scale logistics companies, although some of the vehicles in the hands of the elimination edge need to be eliminated, but because the economic situation is not good, the demand for transportation is reduced, so it will not be updated. In addition, in his view, more than a decade ago, the models were concentrated between 180 and 200 horsepower, and the carrying efficiency was relatively low. Now, even if it is eliminated, it may choose to carry more efficient vehicles, such as 300 horsepower. Above, as a result, it is possible to eliminate 3 cars, but only need to update one car, the conversion ratio may reach 3:1 or 4:1.
Yellow label car illegal circulation In addition, analysts who have long been concerned about the heavy truck market told reporters that the increase is not obvious and there may be another reason. "For example, in some third- and fourth-line or even four-five-line markets, there is an incremental demand. However, it is precisely the first- and second-tier cities that have forced a large number of yellow-label vehicles to be phased out, causing some models that can still be used to enter the above market and fill the gap. New market share.” In the view of automobile analyst Feng Shiming, the above phenomenon in the passenger car market has become more common, and commercial vehicles are used as production tools. For the sake of cost, this “transfer” comes to buyers and sellers. Said to be more favorable.
According to the reporter's understanding, after the task book for the elimination of the national yellow-label car was released, 84 cities and prefectures including 18 provinces including Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Zhejiang and Guangdong introduced a subsidy implementation plan with a maximum subsidy of 80,000. Yuan/car, the minimum is several thousand yuan.
“The amount of subsidies is relatively low relative to the cost of purchase.” The above-mentioned heavy trucks believe that. According to the reporter's understanding, only the heavy-duty trucks purchased between 2007 and 2008 can be retired in accordance with the prescribed time to enjoy the subsidy amount of up to 80,000 yuan per vehicle. If not, the scrap subsidy for a heavy goods vehicle may range from 10,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan. On the contrary, the minimum cost of the owner at the time of purchase was between 200,000 and 300,000 yuan. Prior to this, there was a car owner complaining, "My car bought 300,000 yuan, only opened for 7 years, said to be scrapped and scrapped, who will make up for the loss in the middle?"
Not only that, according to the policy, in order to successfully obtain the above subsidies, the car must first “take regular participation in motor vehicle safety and environmental inspection”, and secondly, it needs to deal with violations. "A lot of cars are originally yellow-label cars, they have been scrapped. You let him go to the inspection. It was impossible to pass the inspection last year, so it is better to sell them to us. It is convenient and fast." A yellow cattle who has been engaged in the acquisition of yellow-label vehicles for a long time told reporters. . Selling the car to the oxen will not only result in higher returns, but also facilitate the procedures. The reporter learned from the market in the name of the owner of the scrapped car. For example, a 1999 Shanghai Pusang, the price of the car dealer’s acquisition was 8,000 yuan, and if the consumer scrapped according to the government’s requirements, the subsidy was only 6480 yuan. . If there is a violation record, it must be further processed.
Therefore, even under the favorable subsidy policy, the enthusiasm of car owners to eliminate yellow-label cars through formal channels is not high. According to the data disclosed by the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau, from September 2012 to the end of the year, only 2,703 applications for subsidies were received, and the number of yellow-label vehicles in the city was about 230,000, which is eligible for subsidized vehicles. The total number is about 80,000.
“After the completed car purchase, the used car dealer will either move it to some places where the yellow label car is not strictly regulated, or sell it to some small recycling units, which will renovate some parts and then enter the small Auto repair shop. Through such a reverse sale, earn the difference." An industry insider familiar with the car scrap recycling process told reporters.
“The first-tier cities are still the same. In the second- and third-tier cities, it is obviously more difficult to eliminate the 'Yellow Label Vehicle' through normal channels,” said the relevant personage of China National Heavy Duty Truck. For this reason, in the implementation of the elimination of yellow-label vehicles in various regions announced by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in the past from January to October, the middle-eastern cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, and Zhejiang were better in terms of elimination. Mainly such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Tibet and other provinces. The data shows that the number of eliminated tasks for Tibet's yellow and old cars this year is 3,800, but the completion is only 1,000.

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