The reporter learned from the 3rd China (Northwestern) Coal Coke Summit Forum held in Yinchuan City, Ningxia, that the price of coking coal has continued to rise in 2011 and the price of steel has fallen. Coking companies have suffered large losses and even face limited production. Dilemma. Experts said that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the coking industry still has potential for development, but coke enterprises will usher in a deep integration period, it is expected that the coke venture will accelerate the merger and reorganization and integration, deep processing of coke by-products will become the main profit point of coking enterprises. In the long run, the situation of independent coke enterprises will be worrisome. They may choose to unite with upstream and downstream industries such as coal and steel or within the industry. Cop Cars,Police Van,Motorbike For Cruiser,Motocross Road Bike Jinan Maxview Industrial Co.,Ltd. , https://www.maxviewmoto.com
Both are under pressure to cope with the loss of coke and face limited production.
In 2011, due to rising prices of upstream coking coal, falling prices of downstream steel products, and coke industry itself being in a state of overcapacity, bargaining power was continuously weakened, and coking companies faced a situation of both being squeezed and profitability continued to decline.
Data from the China Coking Industry Association shows that at present, China's coke production capacity has exceeded 500 million tons, while coke production in 2011 was around 420 million tons. The situation of overcapacity has not improved. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first eight months of this year, China produced 4,692.83 million tons of crude steel, which was calculated based on 0.45 tons of coke per ton of crude steel consumed. A total of 211.77 million tons of coke were needed, but domestic coke production was 28.822 million tons during the same period.
As of the end of September, steel prices rose 48% from the lowest price since 2008, while state-owned ore coking coal prices rose by 80% from the lowest price, and local coking coal prices rose by 79% from the lowest price. Coking coal prices rose significantly higher than steel.
According to Jin Jiao, the president of the China Coke Association, from January to July this year, the coking enterprises included in the statistics achieved a total increase in sales revenue of approximately 37.96% year-on-year, total profit of 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and nearly 40% of the coking enterprises suffered losses. The sales margin of coking enterprises dropped from 2.72% in the previous year to 2.19%, the cost of sales increased by 39.78%, and the financial expenses increased by 51.21%. It is very difficult for coking companies to sell coking coal to buy coal money, and operating pressures have increased further.
Cang Man, a coke analyst at the commodity branch of the Commodity Data Business Group, believes that in the context of overcapacity and declining demand, coke enterprises can only reduce losses by increasing their efforts to limit production.
Huang Jingan believes that under the pressure of both upstream and downstream industries, the "12th Five-Year Plan" coking industry will enter the era of low profit.
The high cost and weak bargaining power will plagued Jiaoqi for a long time
For coking enterprises, raw material costs and bargaining power are undoubtedly the two key factors affecting corporate profits.
First of all, the coking coal, the main raw material of Jiaoqi, has continued to rise in price due to the scarcity of resources. At the same time, with the advancement of resource integration in the coal industry in recent years, the size of coal enterprises after mergers and reorganizations has been increasing, and the bargaining power has become stronger. , so that coke prices of raw materials cost pressure.
According to statistics from the State Administration of Work Safety, the proved reserves of coking coal in China are 280.367 billion tons, accounting for only 26.63% of China's total coal reserves. From the distribution perspective, China's coking coal is distributed in 29 provinces and cities across the country, but the resources are extremely unevenly distributed, mainly in North China and East China, of which Shanxi proved reserves of 155.184 billion tons, accounting for 55.35% of the country's total. The first place in the country, coking coal resources in other provinces is generally low.
Because coking coal accounts for a relatively small proportion of coal reserves in China, it has been classified as a scarce coal by the state and has been explicitly developed for protection. It is reported that the measures for the protective development of scarce coal species led by the National Energy Administration have been basically completed and are expected to be introduced in the near future. For rare coal species, the principle of total amount control will be clearly stated. In addition, the newly revised "Provisional Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Resource Tax" promulgated on October 10, the standard for the amount of coking coal resources has been raised from RMB 8/tonne to RMB 8-20/tonne. Analysts pointed out that the increase in coking coal resource tax shows that the policy intention of protective development of scarce coal is more clear. Because the ability of coal companies to pass on costs is stronger, the impact of the increase in tax rate on coking coal production enterprises is limited, but the downstream coking industry will Has a huge impact.
In the case of imported coking coal, Australia, which still has the official pricing power in the international coking coal industry, will impose a mineral resource tax on coal and try to implement a carbon tax. The increase in international coking coal prices will be partly transmitted to the domestic market and increase the cost of mining for foreign companies. And investment threshold, affecting coal supply, long-term support of coking coal prices.
In terms of raw material transportation for coking enterprises, the reporter learned from an interview with Jiaoqi people that due to the fact that coking enterprises are located in Shanxi, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, etc., the distance from the coal production area is not too far away. Big. However, during the special period such as the peak of electricity usage or power shortage, due to the national coking coal transportation channel being accounted for by thermal coal, the state will also face transport bottlenecks and the corresponding coking coal transportation costs will increase. In general, the long-term upward trend in the cost of raw materials for coking enterprises in China will be inevitable.
Secondly, as far as the coking industry itself is concerned, the overcapacity and the scattered layout of the coke industry are also one of the important reasons for the further reduction of the coke price bargaining power. Take Shanxi Province, where Jiaozuo is more concentrated, as an example. According to statistics, 227 households of Jiao enterprises in the province are distributed in more than 60 counties and have an average productivity of less than 700,000 tons per household. It is understood that in order to change this situation, Shanxi is currently vigorously advancing the merger and reorganization of coking companies, but from a national point of view, the distribution of coking enterprises within 3-5 years is still difficult to completely reverse the situation.
"12th Five-Year" coke enterprises or usher in a deep integration period
Although the coking industry still has many problems mentioned above, Huang Jingan believes that the coking industry will still have development potential and market opportunities in the future. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China is still in an important period of strategic opportunities for economic and social development. The demand for steel is expected to increase, and the corresponding coke demand will still have room for growth.
However, he pointed out that currently the coking industry has excess capacity, the scale of production and sales is huge, the enterprises are decentralized, the market competition is fierce, and subject to the constraints of the total amount of resources and environmental protection requirements, Jiaoqi wants to win in the competition, and it is bound to accelerate technological progress and innovation. Accelerate mergers and reorganizations, eliminate backward companies, and promote sustainable development of green transformation. The “12th Five-Year Plan†is a critical period for the transformation and development of the coking industry from volume growth to quality improvement. The coking industry will usher in a deep integration period.
Wang Weixing, a senior engineer at the China Metal Society, believes that from the current situation, due to factors such as the cost of raw materials, it is difficult for the future coke enterprises to increase their profits in coke production, and it may even be difficult to make profits. The coke enterprises will be subject to the byproducts. Kung fu, broaden the thinking, and comprehensively consider the issue of economic efficiency, such as taking into consideration the deep processing of coal tar, coke oven gas and other by-products.
It is understood that in recent years, a large number of equipment such as coal tar deep processing, benzene hydrorefining, and coke oven gas methanol production have been put into operation or are being accelerated. For example, the 600,000 tons/year methanol to olefin project in Shanxi Coking Chemical Co., Ltd. has been comprehensive. Started, WISCO coking 500,000 tons / year is stepping up preparations and so on.
In addition, in terms of the problem of excess capacity in the coking industry, experts said that the oversupply of the coking industry and the oversupply of the coke market will eventually lead to difficulties in the survival of independent coke enterprises in the long run. At present, the number of domestic independent coke enterprises is small and many are private enterprises. The bargaining power of the coal and steel industry, which is increasingly concentrating on industry concentration, is getting weaker. The independent coke enterprises are under pressure in the middle of the industry chain. If not, It will be very difficult for the steel or coal industry combination to survive.
Experts believe that in addition to seeking cooperation with upstream and downstream industries in the industry chain, independent coke ventures may also have some companies with stronger strengths to consider strong internal forces within the industry to form a large coking group to enhance their competitiveness and voice. .