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Affected by multiple factors, the price of LED chips, packaging and applications has been falling continuously since the beginning of the year. The average decline in the first seven months exceeded 20.
At the 2011 High-tech LED Boutique Exhibition and Industry Summit Forum held yesterday, the hidden worry about overcapacity has become the most concerned topic for entrepreneurs. Zhang Xiaofei, dean of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, pointed out that the overheated investment in the LED industry chain has already appeared.
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According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, from January to July this year, the price of 2-inch sapphire substrate dropped from the highest of 35 US dollars per piece at the beginning of the year to the current 13-15 US dollars per piece, with an average decline of more than 50; The price cut is 25, the maximum price reduction is 42; the average price of LED package is 23, and the maximum price reduction is 37; the average price of LED application is also 21.
The investment in LED sapphire substrate is the most overheated, followed by epitaxial chips, and the package capacity is relatively surplus. The overall performance of LED applications is better. Zhang Xiaofei pointed out that under the promotion of the preferential subsidy policies of local governments, from January to July 2011, the number of MOCVD in mainland China increased by more than 200. It is estimated that the LED chip production capacity will reach 10 times in 2010 by 2010.
According to statistics, the total planned investment of LED epitaxial chips in China is 183.5 billion, of which 73.5 billion projects are under construction; the total planned MOCVD equipment scale is 4,519, and the number of projects under construction is 1,642, and the actual actual capacity is 543. Since last year, local governments such as Yangzhou and Wuhu have subsidized MOCVD equipment on a large scale to expand the scale of the LED chip industry. However, at the same time, the growth rate of the application market has been unsatisfactory.
In the application phase, backlighting has been seen as the main driving force for LED applications, while panel makers have lowered their shipping plans in the last two quarters. Some senior analysts believe that due to the high inventory and slow sales of LED backlight TVs in the fourth quarter of 2010, the first quarter of 2011 and the second, the demand for LED backlights has decreased.
And Taiwanese manufacturers are facing the same problem. According to Zhan Yiren, secretary general of the Taiwan Optoelectronics Semiconductor Industry Association, the industry boom driven by LED-backlit TVs last year did not continue this year; if the backlight could not support the production capacity, it is hoped that the lighting can be driven; but from the current situation, LED lighting products are still needed. The price is more competitive, or the government has introduced corresponding policy incentives to effectively awaken the market.
With the release of production capacity in the second half of the year, enterprises will face more severe price challenges, and short-term overcapacity is certain. Gong Weibin, chairman of Ruifeng Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. (300241, shares) said.
Coexistence of price wars and commons The industry generally believes that price wars will accelerate the industry reshuffle, eliminate some small and medium-sized enterprises, and make the market share more concentrated to leading enterprises, which is more obvious in the packaging process.
According to Zhang Xiaofei, the number of LED packaging companies has been significantly lower than that of previous years. The number of newcomers has decreased significantly, and the gross profit margin of most LED packaging companies has dropped significantly. The total investment has decreased by more than 20 from 2010. LED packaging companies have the lowest risk resistance. Compared with the profit of LED packaging companies above 90 in 2010, the proportion of loss-making enterprises will increase significantly this year; in addition, 10 companies are expected to be closed down. He said.
In the LED investment, some companies have become more cautious. Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tongfang (600100, shares), told reporters that Tongfang’s investment in the LED field will not exceed 20% of assets. The follow-up will decide whether to increase capital or not according to market conditions; at the same time, the company is also in the overall layout of the industry chain. Have some considerations.
However, Gong Weibin believes that price competition is a very suitable period for companies to differentiate their performance. The price war is good for two types of LED manufacturers with core capabilities to stand out, one is technology-leading; the other is cost-leading. He said that in this regard, Ruifeng Optoelectronics will pay more attention to reducing costs through technology and strive to reduce the dominant cost of 30-50 without reducing product quality.
He also pointed out that on the other hand, the decline in LED prices has also pushed the market to expand, which will prompt LEDs to enter the application lighting market faster.