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International oil prices suddenly fell after entering July, and the drop has reached 20% so far (data from Bloomberg)
After the international oil price hit a record high of US$147/barrel on July 1, the market situation appeared to have undergone a sudden change. In the following 1 month or so, international crude oil prices have fallen steadily, completely without the aggressive growth momentum in the first half of the year.
August 11th, the New York Mercantile Exchange, September light sweet crude oil futures settled down 75 cents to 114.45 US dollars a barrel, once hit an intraday low of 112.72 US dollars a barrel. At this point, the crude oil price has fallen by 20% compared with the historically high price of 147 US dollars per barrel set on July 1 this year, and the trend of oil prices has thus entered the bear market recognized by Wall Street. Based on past experience in traditional technology analysis, there will be a 10-15% drop in oil prices after entering the bear market. It seems that the big bull market that international oil prices started from 1999 seems to have come to an end and the market trend is undergoing a reversal.
Relieve global inflation pressures
The sharp fall in oil prices has also exposed other commodities to the top of the equation, but it is good news for the world economy facing inflation, because falling oil prices will greatly ease global inflation pressures. Since the end of June, gold futures prices have fallen by more than 11%, and some industrial metal prices have also declined. Agricultural prices also fell, with prices of corn, soybeans and wheat falling by 31%, 24% and 5.9% respectively.
The fall in the prices of crude oil and basic raw material goods means that global inflationary pressures are decreasing.
The sharp drop in international oil prices is particularly important for the Chinese economy. China is currently the second largest consumer of oil in the world, and most of its oil demand depends on imports. The continued sharp decline in international crude oil prices not only can reduce China's import costs, but it will also ease the pressure on domestic oil product prices. This is a positive signal for China's price drop.
With the end of the Olympic Games, the Chinese economy, which has experienced rapid development for several consecutive years, will also usher in the "post-Olympic era." In theory, the Olympic Games will indeed have an impact on the economy of the host country. In the post-Olympic era, as the investment and consumption of the Olympic Games construction is decreasing, the total domestic demand will drop sharply. Oversupply and insufficient effective demand will lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth, which is in sharp contrast to the rapid growth before the Olympics. However, most experts believe that it is unlikely that the Chinese economy will slow down after the Olympic Games. It is unlikely that the post-Olympic fall will occur in China. The sharp decline in international crude oil prices not only helps ease the pressure on domestic prices, but also helps prevent the Chinese economy from suddenly decelerating in the post-Olympic era.
Four reasons for the long-term bullish international oil prices
For the current drop in oil prices, most agencies are more cautious. According to a report issued by the International Energy Agency on August 12, the long-term trend of international oil prices is still uncertain. The report said that from the fundamental perspective of the oil market, the tight supply situation of crude oil and refined oil that has caused crude oil prices to hit new highs this year has been temporarily eased. However, in the long run, the international crude oil demand market still faces many uncertainties. The report predicts that the United States will reduce its crude oil consumption by 3.1% this year and will reduce by 2.0% next year. However, the reduction in U.S. crude oil consumption may be partially offset by China's demand growth. The report predicts that China's crude oil consumption demand in 2008 will increase by 5.6%, and it will increase by 5.7% next year. Although China is the second largest oil consumer in the world, its crude oil consumption is only about one-third of that of the United States.
From the historical trend, the sharp rise in oil prices is still the most recent 10 years. The international crude oil price has increased from about $25 a barrel in 2002 to more than $140 a barrel today, which has more than doubled in six years. This is also the fastest six years of global economic growth in the past 30 years. The annual growth rate has exceeded 4%. This shows that the rapid growth of the world economy has brought about an increase in oil demand, which is the fundamental force driving up oil prices. However, as a non-renewable resource, petroleum cannot be treated like other commodities. As demand increases and prices increase, production will increase. Therefore, as ever-increasing demand hits limited reserves and production, the scarcity of oil will become increasingly prominent and oil prices will become higher and higher. Therefore, the increase in demand and the fact that supply has remained basically unchanged are the root causes of the continuous soaring of international oil prices. In the foreseeable future, this contradiction between supply and demand will not fundamentally change, so the long-term upward trend in oil prices will not be fundamentally reversed.
We believe that the current drop in oil prices is likely to be only a short-term behavior and cannot last long. The main reasons are as follows:
1. The dollar's rally is likely to be a short-term behavior. Under the influence of the US “subprime loan,†the US dollar will continue to depreciate in the long run. Even if the real estate market has the potential to drag on the U.S. economy, global oil demand will not materially change.
2. As the global oil supply and demand gap has become closer and more clear, the international oil price will also be at a high stage of operation in the long run. From the perspective of global oil supply, although Bush signed a ban on the development of offshore oil, it is basically difficult for the Democratic majority-constituent parliament to pass. However, the large oil fields newly discovered by Brazil and Iran are in the face of strong global demand.
3. Increased geopolitical risks and continued expansion into other countries outside the Middle East have also contributed to the continuous rise of international oil prices. The Iranian nuclear issue in the Middle East and the conflict between Georgia and Russia are likely to see new situations at all times, stimulating a sharp rise in fragile oil prices.
4. High oil prices cannot effectively reduce oil demand, and investors generally expect that the global economy will still be able to cope with the impact of high oil prices. In recent years, Asia has become the largest source of new global oil demand. As long as there is no major change in demand from China and India, the total global oil demand will be difficult to reduce.
Goldman Sachs: Three months later oil prices rise to $145
In April 2005, when oil prices were still hovering above 50 U.S. dollars per barrel, Goldman Sachs analyst Murti had boldly predicted that the price of oil would climb to 105 U.S. dollars per barrel. This prediction, once subject to many suspicions and ridicules, has now been obtained. Acceptable. Last Thursday, just a day before the price of oil hit its biggest fall in several weeks, Goldman Sachs once again issued a report saying that the current drop in oil prices is only temporary weakness. As prices fall back to more appropriate levels, consumer demand will rebound. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that crude oil prices will rise to 145.30 U.S. dollars in three months and will regain 147 U.S. dollars in one year, and may again hit new highs. For this forecast, we should pay enough attention to it.
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